Traders see Anthropic as the clear frontrunner for second-best AI model by end of June, with 71.5 percent implied probability driven by its Claude large language models’ consistent top-tier results on independent benchmarks for reasoning, coding, and multimodal tasks. Recent model releases have strengthened its competitive edge against OpenAI and Google, as traders weigh demonstrated capabilities over marketing claims in a rapidly evolving landscape. Google’s 14.5 percent reflects ongoing Gemini updates, while OpenAI at 9.2 percent and xAI at 2.9 percent trail amid expectations for new iterations. Upcoming developer conferences and potential benchmark releases in the next six weeks could still alter sentiment before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 72%
Google 15%
OpenAI 9.4%
xAI 2.8%
$400,986 Vol.
$400,986 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Anthropic
72%
15%
OpenAI
9%
xAI
3%
DeepSeek
1%
Microsoft
1%
Meta
1%
Alibaba
1%
Moonshot
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Amazon
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Anthropic 72%
Google 15%
OpenAI 9.4%
xAI 2.8%
$400,986 Vol.
$400,986 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Anthropic
$14,717 Vol.
72%
$5,648 Vol.
15%
OpenAI
$34,207 Vol.
9%
xAI
$14,892 Vol.
3%
DeepSeek
$249,054 Vol.
1%
Microsoft
$5,685 Vol.
1%
Meta
$4,186 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$6,636 Vol.
1%
Moonshot
$4,922 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$9,323 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$34,087 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$4,429 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$5,557 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$2,909 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$4,734 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Traders see Anthropic as the clear frontrunner for second-best AI model by end of June, with 71.5 percent implied probability driven by its Claude large language models’ consistent top-tier results on independent benchmarks for reasoning, coding, and multimodal tasks. Recent model releases have strengthened its competitive edge against OpenAI and Google, as traders weigh demonstrated capabilities over marketing claims in a rapidly evolving landscape. Google’s 14.5 percent reflects ongoing Gemini updates, while OpenAI at 9.2 percent and xAI at 2.9 percent trail amid expectations for new iterations. Upcoming developer conferences and potential benchmark releases in the next six weeks could still alter sentiment before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Market Opened: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
Volume
$400,986End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Traders see Anthropic as the clear frontrunner for second-best AI model by end of June, with 71.5 percent implied probability driven by its Claude large language models’ consistent top-tier results on independent benchmarks for reasoning, coding, and multimodal tasks. Recent model releases have strengthened its competitive edge against OpenAI and Google, as traders weigh demonstrated capabilities over marketing claims in a rapidly evolving landscape. Google’s 14.5 percent reflects ongoing Gemini updates, while OpenAI at 9.2 percent and xAI at 2.9 percent trail amid expectations for new iterations. Upcoming developer conferences and potential benchmark releases in the next six weeks could still alter sentiment before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$400,986End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Traders see Anthropic as the clear frontrunner for second-best AI model by end of June, with 71.5 percent implied probability driven by its Claude large language models’ consistent top-tier results on independent benchmarks for reasoning, coding, and multimodal tasks. Recent model releases have strengthened its competitive edge against OpenAI and Google, as traders weigh demonstrated capabilities over marketing claims in a rapidly evolving landscape. Google’s 14.5 percent reflects ongoing Gemini updates, while OpenAI at 9.2 percent and xAI at 2.9 percent trail amid expectations for new iterations. Upcoming developer conferences and potential benchmark releases in the next six weeks could still alter sentiment before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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