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Geopolitics·Ukraine

Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?

icon for Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?
Geopolitics·Ukraine

Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?

$546,014 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$546,014 Vol.

Polymarket
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual visits Ukraine between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed individual physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Ukraine. Whether or not the listed individual enters Ukrainian airspace during the timeframe of this market will not be considered. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Active U.S.-led diplomatic efforts to advance Russia-Ukraine negotiations have shaped recent trader positioning, with envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff completing their first Kyiv visit on September 6 after Moscow talks. This shuttle diplomacy, alongside a September 18 regional Carpathian summit in western Ukraine attended by Serbia’s president and featuring Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s planned participation, supports elevated probabilities for several European figures. An upcoming European Council session in mid-October and Zelensky’s current U.S. engagements with President Trump add near-term catalysts. Low odds for higher-profile U.S. officials reflect the conditional nature of further visits tied to negotiation momentum, while structural factors like security protocols and scheduling windows through year-end continue to influence assessments of additional arrivals.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual visits Ukraine between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed individual physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Ukraine. Whether or not the listed individual enters Ukrainian airspace during the timeframe of this market will not be considered.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual visits Ukraine between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed individual physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Ukraine. Whether or not the listed individual enters Ukrainian airspace during the timeframe of this market will not be considered. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$546,014
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 6:59 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual visits Ukraine between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed individual physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Ukraine. Whether or not the listed individual enters Ukrainian airspace during the timeframe of this market will not be considered. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Active U.S.-led diplomatic efforts to advance Russia-Ukraine negotiations have shaped recent trader positioning, with envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff completing their first Kyiv visit on September 6 after Moscow talks. This shuttle diplomacy, alongside a September 18 regional Carpathian summit in western Ukraine attended by Serbia’s president and featuring Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s planned participation, supports elevated probabilities for several European figures. An upcoming European Council session in mid-October and Zelensky’s current U.S. engagements with President Trump add near-term catalysts. Low odds for higher-profile U.S. officials reflect the conditional nature of further visits tied to negotiation momentum, while structural factors like security protocols and scheduling windows through year-end continue to influence assessments of additional arrivals.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual visits Ukraine between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed individual physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Ukraine. Whether or not the listed individual enters Ukrainian airspace during the timeframe of this market will not be considered.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual visits Ukraine between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed individual physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Ukraine. Whether or not the listed individual enters Ukrainian airspace during the timeframe of this market will not be considered. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$546,014
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 6:59 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 15 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "António Costa" at 100%, followed by "Donald Tusk" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?" has generated $546K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 29, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?," browse the 15 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?" is "António Costa" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Donald Tusk" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.