Diplomatic relations between the United States and most nations remain sufficiently stable to support the 76.5% trader consensus against any expulsion of a U.S. ambassador by year-end. Recent bilateral frictions, including the August 2026 U.S. visa revocation for Brazil’s envoy over stalled ambassador approvals and visa denials, have produced reciprocal measures but stopped short of declaring U.S. diplomats persona non grata. Earlier 2025 expulsions, such as South Africa’s, have not triggered copycat actions. Broader patterns show ambassador expulsions occur infrequently outside acute crises, and no comparable triggers—such as major sanctions disputes, military incidents, or official declarations—have emerged in the past 30 days to shift probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated9% chance
$33,030 Vol.
$33,030 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
9% chance
$33,030 Vol.
$33,030 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Diplomatic relations between the United States and most nations remain sufficiently stable to support the 76.5% trader consensus against any expulsion of a U.S. ambassador by year-end. Recent bilateral frictions, including the August 2026 U.S. visa revocation for Brazil’s envoy over stalled ambassador approvals and visa denials, have produced reciprocal measures but stopped short of declaring U.S. diplomats persona non grata. Earlier 2025 expulsions, such as South Africa’s, have not triggered copycat actions. Broader patterns show ambassador expulsions occur infrequently outside acute crises, and no comparable triggers—such as major sanctions disputes, military incidents, or official declarations—have emerged in the past 30 days to shift probabilities.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ET
Volume
$33,030End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Diplomatic relations between the United States and most nations remain sufficiently stable to support the 76.5% trader consensus against any expulsion of a U.S. ambassador by year-end. Recent bilateral frictions, including the August 2026 U.S. visa revocation for Brazil’s envoy over stalled ambassador approvals and visa denials, have produced reciprocal measures but stopped short of declaring U.S. diplomats persona non grata. Earlier 2025 expulsions, such as South Africa’s, have not triggered copycat actions. Broader patterns show ambassador expulsions occur infrequently outside acute crises, and no comparable triggers—such as major sanctions disputes, military incidents, or official declarations—have emerged in the past 30 days to shift probabilities.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$33,030End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Diplomatic relations between the United States and most nations remain sufficiently stable to support the 76.5% trader consensus against any expulsion of a U.S. ambassador by year-end. Recent bilateral frictions, including the August 2026 U.S. visa revocation for Brazil’s envoy over stalled ambassador approvals and visa denials, have produced reciprocal measures but stopped short of declaring U.S. diplomats persona non grata. Earlier 2025 expulsions, such as South Africa’s, have not triggered copycat actions. Broader patterns show ambassador expulsions occur infrequently outside acute crises, and no comparable triggers—such as major sanctions disputes, military incidents, or official declarations—have emerged in the past 30 days to shift probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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