Apple's long-standing practice of launching its flagship iPhone lineup each September underpins the 86.2% market-implied probability for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. Recent supply-chain reports and analyst commentary from May 2026 indicate the company will unveil the iPhone 18 Pro, iPhone 18 Pro Max, and its first foldable model during the traditional fall event, while shifting the base iPhone 18 and entry-level variants to early 2027 to accommodate production adjustments and a split rollout strategy. This maintains strong trader consensus around a 2026 debut for at least part of the series, with key catalysts including Apple's September keynote timing and ongoing development of advanced hardware features such as improved processors and foldable displays. Uncertainty around exact model availability keeps the probability below 100%, as last-minute supply issues or strategic delays remain possible.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$100,738 Vol.
$100,738 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$100,738 Vol.
$100,738 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's long-standing practice of launching its flagship iPhone lineup each September underpins the 86.2% market-implied probability for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. Recent supply-chain reports and analyst commentary from May 2026 indicate the company will unveil the iPhone 18 Pro, iPhone 18 Pro Max, and its first foldable model during the traditional fall event, while shifting the base iPhone 18 and entry-level variants to early 2027 to accommodate production adjustments and a split rollout strategy. This maintains strong trader consensus around a 2026 debut for at least part of the series, with key catalysts including Apple's September keynote timing and ongoing development of advanced hardware features such as improved processors and foldable displays. Uncertainty around exact model availability keeps the probability below 100%, as last-minute supply issues or strategic delays remain possible.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
Volume
$100,738End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's long-standing practice of launching its flagship iPhone lineup each September underpins the 86.2% market-implied probability for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. Recent supply-chain reports and analyst commentary from May 2026 indicate the company will unveil the iPhone 18 Pro, iPhone 18 Pro Max, and its first foldable model during the traditional fall event, while shifting the base iPhone 18 and entry-level variants to early 2027 to accommodate production adjustments and a split rollout strategy. This maintains strong trader consensus around a 2026 debut for at least part of the series, with key catalysts including Apple's September keynote timing and ongoing development of advanced hardware features such as improved processors and foldable displays. Uncertainty around exact model availability keeps the probability below 100%, as last-minute supply issues or strategic delays remain possible.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$100,738End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple's long-standing practice of launching its flagship iPhone lineup each September underpins the 86.2% market-implied probability for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. Recent supply-chain reports and analyst commentary from May 2026 indicate the company will unveil the iPhone 18 Pro, iPhone 18 Pro Max, and its first foldable model during the traditional fall event, while shifting the base iPhone 18 and entry-level variants to early 2027 to accommodate production adjustments and a split rollout strategy. This maintains strong trader consensus around a 2026 debut for at least part of the series, with key catalysts including Apple's September keynote timing and ongoing development of advanced hardware features such as improved processors and foldable displays. Uncertainty around exact model availability keeps the probability below 100%, as last-minute supply issues or strategic delays remain possible.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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