**Traders assign a 93.5% probability to “No” because unified Republican control of the White House and Congress makes the two-thirds majorities required in both chambers highly unlikely.** President Trump has issued vetoes on select measures, but recent override attempts in the House have fallen short of the threshold, consistent with the historical pattern in which only about 4% of vetoes are successfully overridden. With midterm elections approaching in November 2026, Republican lawmakers face strong incentives to align with the administration on spending and policy priorities rather than defect in large numbers. Ongoing disputes have centered more on impoundment and pocket rescissions than on formal veto overrides, further reducing the chance that Congress will reach the supermajority needed to enact legislation over a presidential objection before year-end.