Democrats’ prospects for regaining House control in the 2026 midterms represent the central driver behind the 67.5% trader consensus on impeachment before January 2029. Multiple Democratic resolutions targeting alleged abuse of power, corruption, and election-related conduct have already been introduced in the current Republican-led chamber and remain stalled, yet several have garnered cosponsors and public attention. Polls conducted through mid-2026 show majority support for viewing certain actions as impeachable offenses. House Republican leaders have warned that a Democratic majority would likely prioritize articles of impeachment shortly after assuming the gavel, consistent with prior patterns when the opposition held power. Traders price this outcome as probable given the simple-majority threshold in the House and the remaining time in the term, while Senate conviction remains a separate and more demanding hurdle not required for market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated68% chance
$93,628 Vol.
$93,628 Vol.
Jan 19, 2029
68% chance
$93,628 Vol.
$93,628 Vol.
Jan 19, 2029
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.Democrats’ prospects for regaining House control in the 2026 midterms represent the central driver behind the 67.5% trader consensus on impeachment before January 2029. Multiple Democratic resolutions targeting alleged abuse of power, corruption, and election-related conduct have already been introduced in the current Republican-led chamber and remain stalled, yet several have garnered cosponsors and public attention. Polls conducted through mid-2026 show majority support for viewing certain actions as impeachable offenses. House Republican leaders have warned that a Democratic majority would likely prioritize articles of impeachment shortly after assuming the gavel, consistent with prior patterns when the opposition held power. Traders price this outcome as probable given the simple-majority threshold in the House and the remaining time in the term, while Senate conviction remains a separate and more demanding hurdle not required for market resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Market Opened: Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ET
Volume
$93,628End Date
Jan 20, 2029Market Opened
Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.Democrats’ prospects for regaining House control in the 2026 midterms represent the central driver behind the 67.5% trader consensus on impeachment before January 2029. Multiple Democratic resolutions targeting alleged abuse of power, corruption, and election-related conduct have already been introduced in the current Republican-led chamber and remain stalled, yet several have garnered cosponsors and public attention. Polls conducted through mid-2026 show majority support for viewing certain actions as impeachable offenses. House Republican leaders have warned that a Democratic majority would likely prioritize articles of impeachment shortly after assuming the gavel, consistent with prior patterns when the opposition held power. Traders price this outcome as probable given the simple-majority threshold in the House and the remaining time in the term, while Senate conviction remains a separate and more demanding hurdle not required for market resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Volume
$93,628End Date
Jan 20, 2029Market Opened
Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Democrats’ prospects for regaining House control in the 2026 midterms represent the central driver behind the 67.5% trader consensus on impeachment before January 2029. Multiple Democratic resolutions targeting alleged abuse of power, corruption, and election-related conduct have already been introduced in the current Republican-led chamber and remain stalled, yet several have garnered cosponsors and public attention. Polls conducted through mid-2026 show majority support for viewing certain actions as impeachable offenses. House Republican leaders have warned that a Democratic majority would likely prioritize articles of impeachment shortly after assuming the gavel, consistent with prior patterns when the opposition held power. Traders price this outcome as probable given the simple-majority threshold in the House and the remaining time in the term, while Senate conviction remains a separate and more demanding hurdle not required for market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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