Strong bilateral ties between the United States and the Philippines, reinforced by shared security interests in the South China Sea and defense cooperation agreements, underpin the 78% implied probability for a Trump-Marcos meeting by year-end. Trump has already hosted Marcos at the White House during his second term, describing the alliance as ironclad, while Marcos has prioritized engagement with Washington. Recent developments include Trump's planned attendance at the November 2026 ASEAN Summit in Manila, which would facilitate a bilateral encounter as host and guest. Ongoing ministerial dialogues on trade, including Manila’s interest in the TPP, and joint statements affirming military treaty commitments further signal sustained high-level contact. With roughly three months remaining and no major diplomatic ruptures, traders price in a high likelihood of at least one additional meeting before the December 31 resolution date.