Recent July CPI data surprised to the downside at 0.5% YoY, well below consensus near 0.8%, reflecting soft domestic demand, lower food prices, and subdued core readings amid ongoing supply-demand imbalances. Traders price the 0.7-0.8% and 0.5-0.6% brackets closely because August outcomes hinge on whether these pressures persist or show modest rebound from base effects and any policy support. Weak retail sales trends and producer price softness continue to anchor expectations near recent lows, while scheduled data releases on industrial output and trade through late August could shift probabilities if they signal firmer consumer spending or renewed external price pressures.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour0.7% - 0.8% 43%
0.5% - 0.6% 37%
0.3% - 0.4% 11.4%
≤0.2% 11%
≤0.2%
8%
0.3% - 0.4%
11%
0.5% - 0.6%
37%
0.7% - 0.8%
43%
0.9%+
7%
0.7% - 0.8% 43%
0.5% - 0.6% 37%
0.3% - 0.4% 11.4%
≤0.2% 11%
≤0.2%
8%
0.3% - 0.4%
11%
0.5% - 0.6%
37%
0.7% - 0.8%
43%
0.9%+
7%
This market will resolve according to the number the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by during the 12-month period ending August 2026 (% change from the same month in the previous year) according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for August 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently scheduled to be released in September 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for August 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Index in August 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/
Marché ouvert : Aug 10, 2026, 4:28 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by during the 12-month period ending August 2026 (% change from the same month in the previous year) according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for August 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently scheduled to be released in September 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for August 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Index in August 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent July CPI data surprised to the downside at 0.5% YoY, well below consensus near 0.8%, reflecting soft domestic demand, lower food prices, and subdued core readings amid ongoing supply-demand imbalances. Traders price the 0.7-0.8% and 0.5-0.6% brackets closely because August outcomes hinge on whether these pressures persist or show modest rebound from base effects and any policy support. Weak retail sales trends and producer price softness continue to anchor expectations near recent lows, while scheduled data releases on industrial output and trade through late August could shift probabilities if they signal firmer consumer spending or renewed external price pressures.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour


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