Redistricting under California's recent map changes has shifted CA-03 into a more Democratic-leaning seat, with historical voting patterns and presidential results favoring the party by double-digit margins in recent cycles. Incumbent Ami Bera, who advanced easily through the June 2026 primary against limited opposition, benefits from established name recognition, fundraising dominance, and alignment with district demographics. Republican nominee Robb Tucker faces structural headwinds in a district rated Solid Democrat by multiple nonpartisan analysts. Trader consensus reflected in the 93.5% Democratic probability incorporates these baseline advantages while acknowledging that an unusually strong national Republican wave, major candidate-specific developments, or turnout anomalies could still narrow the margin by November.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCA-03 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
CA-03 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
$34,770 Vol.
$34,770 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
94%
Parti républicain
5%
$34,770 Vol.
$34,770 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
$20,091 Vol.
94%
Parti républicain
$14,679 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting under California's recent map changes has shifted CA-03 into a more Democratic-leaning seat, with historical voting patterns and presidential results favoring the party by double-digit margins in recent cycles. Incumbent Ami Bera, who advanced easily through the June 2026 primary against limited opposition, benefits from established name recognition, fundraising dominance, and alignment with district demographics. Republican nominee Robb Tucker faces structural headwinds in a district rated Solid Democrat by multiple nonpartisan analysts. Trader consensus reflected in the 93.5% Democratic probability incorporates these baseline advantages while acknowledging that an unusually strong national Republican wave, major candidate-specific developments, or turnout anomalies could still narrow the margin by November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volume
$34,770Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting under California's recent map changes has shifted CA-03 into a more Democratic-leaning seat, with historical voting patterns and presidential results favoring the party by double-digit margins in recent cycles. Incumbent Ami Bera, who advanced easily through the June 2026 primary against limited opposition, benefits from established name recognition, fundraising dominance, and alignment with district demographics. Republican nominee Robb Tucker faces structural headwinds in a district rated Solid Democrat by multiple nonpartisan analysts. Trader consensus reflected in the 93.5% Democratic probability incorporates these baseline advantages while acknowledging that an unusually strong national Republican wave, major candidate-specific developments, or turnout anomalies could still narrow the margin by November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$34,770Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Redistricting under California's recent map changes has shifted CA-03 into a more Democratic-leaning seat, with historical voting patterns and presidential results favoring the party by double-digit margins in recent cycles. Incumbent Ami Bera, who advanced easily through the June 2026 primary against limited opposition, benefits from established name recognition, fundraising dominance, and alignment with district demographics. Republican nominee Robb Tucker faces structural headwinds in a district rated Solid Democrat by multiple nonpartisan analysts. Trader consensus reflected in the 93.5% Democratic probability incorporates these baseline advantages while acknowledging that an unusually strong national Republican wave, major candidate-specific developments, or turnout anomalies could still narrow the margin by November.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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