California's 3rd congressional district has shifted toward Democrats following 2025 redistricting under Proposition 50, creating a favorable partisan composition for the party. In the June 2026 top-two primary, Democratic incumbent Ami Bera advanced with the highest vote share ahead of Republican Robb Tucker, confirming the seat's lean in early general election positioning. Forecasters rate the race Safe or Solid Democratic, aligning with trader consensus on the November 3, 2026, outcome. The implied probability accounts for typical midterm turnout patterns and the absence of competitive Republican challengers in recent cycles. Late developments such as a national partisan swing, unusually high Republican mobilization, or major candidate withdrawal could still alter the result before Election Day.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCA-03 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
CA-03 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
$34,270 Vol.
$34,270 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
94%
Parti républicain
5%
$34,270 Vol.
$34,270 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
$19,591 Vol.
94%
Parti républicain
$14,679 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 3rd congressional district has shifted toward Democrats following 2025 redistricting under Proposition 50, creating a favorable partisan composition for the party. In the June 2026 top-two primary, Democratic incumbent Ami Bera advanced with the highest vote share ahead of Republican Robb Tucker, confirming the seat's lean in early general election positioning. Forecasters rate the race Safe or Solid Democratic, aligning with trader consensus on the November 3, 2026, outcome. The implied probability accounts for typical midterm turnout patterns and the absence of competitive Republican challengers in recent cycles. Late developments such as a national partisan swing, unusually high Republican mobilization, or major candidate withdrawal could still alter the result before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volume
$34,270Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 3rd congressional district has shifted toward Democrats following 2025 redistricting under Proposition 50, creating a favorable partisan composition for the party. In the June 2026 top-two primary, Democratic incumbent Ami Bera advanced with the highest vote share ahead of Republican Robb Tucker, confirming the seat's lean in early general election positioning. Forecasters rate the race Safe or Solid Democratic, aligning with trader consensus on the November 3, 2026, outcome. The implied probability accounts for typical midterm turnout patterns and the absence of competitive Republican challengers in recent cycles. Late developments such as a national partisan swing, unusually high Republican mobilization, or major candidate withdrawal could still alter the result before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$34,270Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California's 3rd congressional district has shifted toward Democrats following 2025 redistricting under Proposition 50, creating a favorable partisan composition for the party. In the June 2026 top-two primary, Democratic incumbent Ami Bera advanced with the highest vote share ahead of Republican Robb Tucker, confirming the seat's lean in early general election positioning. Forecasters rate the race Safe or Solid Democratic, aligning with trader consensus on the November 3, 2026, outcome. The implied probability accounts for typical midterm turnout patterns and the absence of competitive Republican challengers in recent cycles. Late developments such as a national partisan swing, unusually high Republican mobilization, or major candidate withdrawal could still alter the result before Election Day.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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