Market-implied odds for the May nonfarm payrolls report reflect broad uncertainty in the U.S. labor market, with the 0-50k jobs-added bracket commanding the largest share at 27 percent amid closely contested outcomes across low-to-moderate ranges. Recent softening in hiring trends, evidenced by prior months’ downward revisions and moderating wage growth, has tilted trader consensus toward weaker employment gains, though leading indicators such as initial jobless claims and ISM employment sub-indices continue to show mixed signals. Economists’ consensus estimates cluster near 100k-150k, yet the spread in probabilities highlights sensitivity to seasonal adjustments and potential revisions that could shift resolution. With the report release approaching, traders are closely monitoring incoming data for any acceleration or further deceleration that might consolidate sentiment around a clearer range.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourHow many jobs added in May?
How many jobs added in May?
100k – 150k 41%
150k – 200k 30%
50k – 100k 22%
200k+ 18%
<0
15%
0 – 50k
43%
50k – 100k
17%
100k – 150k
25%
150k – 200k
30%
200k+
18%
100k – 150k 41%
150k – 200k 30%
50k – 100k 22%
200k+ 18%
<0
15%
0 – 50k
43%
50k – 100k
17%
100k – 150k
25%
150k – 200k
30%
200k+
18%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
Marché ouvert : May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Market-implied odds for the May nonfarm payrolls report reflect broad uncertainty in the U.S. labor market, with the 0-50k jobs-added bracket commanding the largest share at 27 percent amid closely contested outcomes across low-to-moderate ranges. Recent softening in hiring trends, evidenced by prior months’ downward revisions and moderating wage growth, has tilted trader consensus toward weaker employment gains, though leading indicators such as initial jobless claims and ISM employment sub-indices continue to show mixed signals. Economists’ consensus estimates cluster near 100k-150k, yet the spread in probabilities highlights sensitivity to seasonal adjustments and potential revisions that could shift resolution. With the report release approaching, traders are closely monitoring incoming data for any acceleration or further deceleration that might consolidate sentiment around a clearer range.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes