The closely matched probabilities across loss brackets for the 34 AIPAC-endorsed candidates reflect mixed primary outcomes so far in the 2026 cycle and uncertainty in the remaining contests through early August. Earlier results showed split performance, with affiliated spending securing some victories while facing effective challenges from progressive opponents in Democratic races. Anti-AIPAC sentiment tied to Israel policy views has influenced voter turnout and polling in several districts, though many endorsees maintain strong fundraising and institutional support. Upcoming primaries in states with open or competitive seats could shift totals depending on turnout among key blocs and any late endorsements or opposition campaigns. Trader consensus treats the range of 6–9 losses as the most balanced assessment of these variables.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourHow many of these 34 AIPAC endorsees will lose their primaries (through August 4 primaries)?
How many of these 34 AIPAC endorsees will lose their primaries (through August 4 primaries)?
6–7 45%
8–9 45%
2–3 45%
4–5 45%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
4 août 2026
0–1
45%
2–3
45%
4–5
45%
6–7
45%
8–9
45%
10+
45%
6–7 45%
8–9 45%
2–3 45%
4–5 45%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
4 août 2026
0–1
$0 Vol.
45%
2–3
$0 Vol.
45%
4–5
$0 Vol.
45%
6–7
$0 Vol.
45%
8–9
$0 Vol.
45%
10+
$0 Vol.
45%
The American Israel Public Affairs Committee is a major, bipartisan American lobbying group that advocates for a strong U.S.-Israel relationship and has endorsed candidates in the upcoming US Congressional primaries.
This market will resolve according to the number of candidates, among those listed below, who do not win their primaries, inclusive of any runoff elections. For purposes of this market, a candidate will be considered to have won a primary if they finish in a position to advance to the general election, even if they are not the top vote-earner or if no primary election is held because the candidate ran unopposed.
This market will only consider the 34 candidates listed below. No subsequent endorsement, unendorsement, or withdrawal from a race will be relevant.
The candidates and races are:
Greg Stanton (Democratic, AZ-04), Abe Hamadeh (Republican, AZ-08), Juan Ciscomani (Republican, AZ-06), Ron Estes (Republican, KS-04), Tracey Mann (Republican, KS-01), Roger Marshall (Republican, KS-Sen), Derek Schmidt (Republican, KS-02), Tom Barrett (Republican, MI-07), Jack Bergman (Republican, MI-01), Bill Huizenga (Republican, MI-04), Lisa McClain (Republican, MI-09), John Moolenaar (Republican, MI-02), Hillary Scholten (Democratic, MI-03), Haley Stevens (Democratic, MI-Sen), Shri Thanedar (Democratic, MI-13), Tim Walberg (Republican, MI-05), Mark Alford (Republican, MO-04), Wesley Bell (Democratic, MO-01), Eric Burlison (Republican, MO-07), Sam Graves (Republican, MO-06), Robert Onder (Republican, MO-03), Jason Smith (Republican, MO-08), Ann Wagner (Republican, MO-02), Ben Cline (Republican, VA-06), Morgan Griffith (Republican, VA-09), Jen Kiggans (Republican, VA-02), John McGuire (Republican, VA-05), Rob Wittman (Republican, VA-01), Michael Baumgartner (Republican, WA-05), Suzan DelBene (Democratic, WA-01), Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (Democratic, WA-03), Kim Schrier (Democratic, WA-08), Adam Smith (Democratic, WA-09), Marilyn Strickland (Democratic, WA-10).
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying federal elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The closely matched probabilities across loss brackets for the 34 AIPAC-endorsed candidates reflect mixed primary outcomes so far in the 2026 cycle and uncertainty in the remaining contests through early August. Earlier results showed split performance, with affiliated spending securing some victories while facing effective challenges from progressive opponents in Democratic races. Anti-AIPAC sentiment tied to Israel policy views has influenced voter turnout and polling in several districts, though many endorsees maintain strong fundraising and institutional support. Upcoming primaries in states with open or competitive seats could shift totals depending on turnout among key blocs and any late endorsements or opposition campaigns. Trader consensus treats the range of 6–9 losses as the most balanced assessment of these variables.
The American Israel Public Affairs Committee is a major, bipartisan American lobbying group that advocates for a strong U.S.-Israel relationship and has endorsed candidates in the upcoming US Congressional primaries.
This market will resolve according to the number of candidates, among those listed below, who do not win their primaries, inclusive of any runoff elections. For purposes of this market, a candidate will be considered to have won a primary if they finish in a position to advance to the general election, even if they are not the top vote-earner or if no primary election is held because the candidate ran unopposed.
This market will only consider the 34 candidates listed below. No subsequent endorsement, unendorsement, or withdrawal from a race will be relevant.
The candidates and races are:
Greg Stanton (Democratic, AZ-04), Abe Hamadeh (Republican, AZ-08), Juan Ciscomani (Republican, AZ-06), Ron Estes (Republican, KS-04), Tracey Mann (Republican, KS-01), Roger Marshall (Republican, KS-Sen), Derek Schmidt (Republican, KS-02), Tom Barrett (Republican, MI-07), Jack Bergman (Republican, MI-01), Bill Huizenga (Republican, MI-04), Lisa McClain (Republican, MI-09), John Moolenaar (Republican, MI-02), Hillary Scholten (Democratic, MI-03), Haley Stevens (Democratic, MI-Sen), Shri Thanedar (Democratic, MI-13), Tim Walberg (Republican, MI-05), Mark Alford (Republican, MO-04), Wesley Bell (Democratic, MO-01), Eric Burlison (Republican, MO-07), Sam Graves (Republican, MO-06), Robert Onder (Republican, MO-03), Jason Smith (Republican, MO-08), Ann Wagner (Republican, MO-02), Ben Cline (Republican, VA-06), Morgan Griffith (Republican, VA-09), Jen Kiggans (Republican, VA-02), John McGuire (Republican, VA-05), Rob Wittman (Republican, VA-01), Michael Baumgartner (Republican, WA-05), Suzan DelBene (Democratic, WA-01), Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (Democratic, WA-03), Kim Schrier (Democratic, WA-08), Adam Smith (Democratic, WA-09), Marilyn Strickland (Democratic, WA-10).
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying federal elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the number of candidates, among those listed below, who do not win their primaries, inclusive of any runoff elections. For purposes of this market, a candidate will be considered to have won a primary if they finish in a position to advance to the general election, even if they are not the top vote-earner or if no primary election is held because the candidate ran unopposed.
This market will only consider the 34 candidates listed below. No subsequent endorsement, unendorsement, or withdrawal from a race will be relevant.
The candidates and races are:
Greg Stanton (Democratic, AZ-04), Abe Hamadeh (Republican, AZ-08), Juan Ciscomani (Republican, AZ-06), Ron Estes (Republican, KS-04), Tracey Mann (Republican, KS-01), Roger Marshall (Republican, KS-Sen), Derek Schmidt (Republican, KS-02), Tom Barrett (Republican, MI-07), Jack Bergman (Republican, MI-01), Bill Huizenga (Republican, MI-04), Lisa McClain (Republican, MI-09), John Moolenaar (Republican, MI-02), Hillary Scholten (Democratic, MI-03), Haley Stevens (Democratic, MI-Sen), Shri Thanedar (Democratic, MI-13), Tim Walberg (Republican, MI-05), Mark Alford (Republican, MO-04), Wesley Bell (Democratic, MO-01), Eric Burlison (Republican, MO-07), Sam Graves (Republican, MO-06), Robert Onder (Republican, MO-03), Jason Smith (Republican, MO-08), Ann Wagner (Republican, MO-02), Ben Cline (Republican, VA-06), Morgan Griffith (Republican, VA-09), Jen Kiggans (Republican, VA-02), John McGuire (Republican, VA-05), Rob Wittman (Republican, VA-01), Michael Baumgartner (Republican, WA-05), Suzan DelBene (Democratic, WA-01), Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (Democratic, WA-03), Kim Schrier (Democratic, WA-08), Adam Smith (Democratic, WA-09), Marilyn Strickland (Democratic, WA-10).
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying federal elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Jul 2, 2026, 4:23 PM ET
Volume
$0Date de fin
4 août 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 2, 2026, 4:23 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The American Israel Public Affairs Committee is a major, bipartisan American lobbying group that advocates for a strong U.S.-Israel relationship and has endorsed candidates in the upcoming US Congressional primaries.
This market will resolve according to the number of candidates, among those listed below, who do not win their primaries, inclusive of any runoff elections. For purposes of this market, a candidate will be considered to have won a primary if they finish in a position to advance to the general election, even if they are not the top vote-earner or if no primary election is held because the candidate ran unopposed.
This market will only consider the 34 candidates listed below. No subsequent endorsement, unendorsement, or withdrawal from a race will be relevant.
The candidates and races are:
Greg Stanton (Democratic, AZ-04), Abe Hamadeh (Republican, AZ-08), Juan Ciscomani (Republican, AZ-06), Ron Estes (Republican, KS-04), Tracey Mann (Republican, KS-01), Roger Marshall (Republican, KS-Sen), Derek Schmidt (Republican, KS-02), Tom Barrett (Republican, MI-07), Jack Bergman (Republican, MI-01), Bill Huizenga (Republican, MI-04), Lisa McClain (Republican, MI-09), John Moolenaar (Republican, MI-02), Hillary Scholten (Democratic, MI-03), Haley Stevens (Democratic, MI-Sen), Shri Thanedar (Democratic, MI-13), Tim Walberg (Republican, MI-05), Mark Alford (Republican, MO-04), Wesley Bell (Democratic, MO-01), Eric Burlison (Republican, MO-07), Sam Graves (Republican, MO-06), Robert Onder (Republican, MO-03), Jason Smith (Republican, MO-08), Ann Wagner (Republican, MO-02), Ben Cline (Republican, VA-06), Morgan Griffith (Republican, VA-09), Jen Kiggans (Republican, VA-02), John McGuire (Republican, VA-05), Rob Wittman (Republican, VA-01), Michael Baumgartner (Republican, WA-05), Suzan DelBene (Democratic, WA-01), Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (Democratic, WA-03), Kim Schrier (Democratic, WA-08), Adam Smith (Democratic, WA-09), Marilyn Strickland (Democratic, WA-10).
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying federal elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The closely matched probabilities across loss brackets for the 34 AIPAC-endorsed candidates reflect mixed primary outcomes so far in the 2026 cycle and uncertainty in the remaining contests through early August. Earlier results showed split performance, with affiliated spending securing some victories while facing effective challenges from progressive opponents in Democratic races. Anti-AIPAC sentiment tied to Israel policy views has influenced voter turnout and polling in several districts, though many endorsees maintain strong fundraising and institutional support. Upcoming primaries in states with open or competitive seats could shift totals depending on turnout among key blocs and any late endorsements or opposition campaigns. Trader consensus treats the range of 6–9 losses as the most balanced assessment of these variables.
The American Israel Public Affairs Committee is a major, bipartisan American lobbying group that advocates for a strong U.S.-Israel relationship and has endorsed candidates in the upcoming US Congressional primaries.
This market will resolve according to the number of candidates, among those listed below, who do not win their primaries, inclusive of any runoff elections. For purposes of this market, a candidate will be considered to have won a primary if they finish in a position to advance to the general election, even if they are not the top vote-earner or if no primary election is held because the candidate ran unopposed.
This market will only consider the 34 candidates listed below. No subsequent endorsement, unendorsement, or withdrawal from a race will be relevant.
The candidates and races are:
Greg Stanton (Democratic, AZ-04), Abe Hamadeh (Republican, AZ-08), Juan Ciscomani (Republican, AZ-06), Ron Estes (Republican, KS-04), Tracey Mann (Republican, KS-01), Roger Marshall (Republican, KS-Sen), Derek Schmidt (Republican, KS-02), Tom Barrett (Republican, MI-07), Jack Bergman (Republican, MI-01), Bill Huizenga (Republican, MI-04), Lisa McClain (Republican, MI-09), John Moolenaar (Republican, MI-02), Hillary Scholten (Democratic, MI-03), Haley Stevens (Democratic, MI-Sen), Shri Thanedar (Democratic, MI-13), Tim Walberg (Republican, MI-05), Mark Alford (Republican, MO-04), Wesley Bell (Democratic, MO-01), Eric Burlison (Republican, MO-07), Sam Graves (Republican, MO-06), Robert Onder (Republican, MO-03), Jason Smith (Republican, MO-08), Ann Wagner (Republican, MO-02), Ben Cline (Republican, VA-06), Morgan Griffith (Republican, VA-09), Jen Kiggans (Republican, VA-02), John McGuire (Republican, VA-05), Rob Wittman (Republican, VA-01), Michael Baumgartner (Republican, WA-05), Suzan DelBene (Democratic, WA-01), Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (Democratic, WA-03), Kim Schrier (Democratic, WA-08), Adam Smith (Democratic, WA-09), Marilyn Strickland (Democratic, WA-10).
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying federal elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the number of candidates, among those listed below, who do not win their primaries, inclusive of any runoff elections. For purposes of this market, a candidate will be considered to have won a primary if they finish in a position to advance to the general election, even if they are not the top vote-earner or if no primary election is held because the candidate ran unopposed.
This market will only consider the 34 candidates listed below. No subsequent endorsement, unendorsement, or withdrawal from a race will be relevant.
The candidates and races are:
Greg Stanton (Democratic, AZ-04), Abe Hamadeh (Republican, AZ-08), Juan Ciscomani (Republican, AZ-06), Ron Estes (Republican, KS-04), Tracey Mann (Republican, KS-01), Roger Marshall (Republican, KS-Sen), Derek Schmidt (Republican, KS-02), Tom Barrett (Republican, MI-07), Jack Bergman (Republican, MI-01), Bill Huizenga (Republican, MI-04), Lisa McClain (Republican, MI-09), John Moolenaar (Republican, MI-02), Hillary Scholten (Democratic, MI-03), Haley Stevens (Democratic, MI-Sen), Shri Thanedar (Democratic, MI-13), Tim Walberg (Republican, MI-05), Mark Alford (Republican, MO-04), Wesley Bell (Democratic, MO-01), Eric Burlison (Republican, MO-07), Sam Graves (Republican, MO-06), Robert Onder (Republican, MO-03), Jason Smith (Republican, MO-08), Ann Wagner (Republican, MO-02), Ben Cline (Republican, VA-06), Morgan Griffith (Republican, VA-09), Jen Kiggans (Republican, VA-02), John McGuire (Republican, VA-05), Rob Wittman (Republican, VA-01), Michael Baumgartner (Republican, WA-05), Suzan DelBene (Democratic, WA-01), Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (Democratic, WA-03), Kim Schrier (Democratic, WA-08), Adam Smith (Democratic, WA-09), Marilyn Strickland (Democratic, WA-10).
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying federal elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$0Date de fin
4 août 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 2, 2026, 4:23 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The closely matched probabilities across loss brackets for the 34 AIPAC-endorsed candidates reflect mixed primary outcomes so far in the 2026 cycle and uncertainty in the remaining contests through early August. Earlier results showed split performance, with affiliated spending securing some victories while facing effective challenges from progressive opponents in Democratic races. Anti-AIPAC sentiment tied to Israel policy views has influenced voter turnout and polling in several districts, though many endorsees maintain strong fundraising and institutional support. Upcoming primaries in states with open or competitive seats could shift totals depending on turnout among key blocs and any late endorsements or opposition campaigns. Trader consensus treats the range of 6–9 losses as the most balanced assessment of these variables.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes