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Will Republicans win any Senate or Governor's Election in a Biden-Trump state?

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Politique·Courses Sénatoriales

Will Republicans win any Senate or Governor's Election in a Biden-Trump state?

72% chance
Polymarket
NOUVEAU
72% chance
Polymarket
NOUVEAU
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, in the 2026 midterm elections, Republicans win a gubernatorial or US Senate election in any state that was won by Donald Trump in the the 2024 US presidential election but was not won by Donald Trump in the 2020 election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the results of all elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. For purposes of this market, the relevant states won by Donald Trump in 2024 but not in 2020 are Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona. No other states will be considered for purposes of this market, and no disputes of any state result from 2020 or 2024 will be considered relevant. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A Senate candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by either the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/), or by the official state election authorities of the states listed above. Republicans hold strong positions in several 2026 races within the six Biden-Trump states (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin). Key contests include the Georgia Senate seat held by Democrat Jon Ossoff, facing a Republican primary runoff, and Democratic-held governorships in Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. These states shifted to Trump in 2024 after supporting Biden in 2020, creating a midterm environment where Republican candidates often benefit from the prior presidential result and turnout patterns. Trader pricing reflects this combination of map exposure and historical midterm dynamics favoring the out-party.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, in the 2026 midterm elections, Republicans win a gubernatorial or US Senate election in any state that was won by Donald Trump in the the 2024 US presidential election but was not won by Donald Trump in the 2020 election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the results of all elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.

For purposes of this market, the relevant states won by Donald Trump in 2024 but not in 2020 are Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona. No other states will be considered for purposes of this market, and no disputes of any state result from 2020 or 2024 will be considered relevant.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A Senate candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by either the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/), or by the official state election authorities of the states listed above.
Volume
$2,223
Date de fin
3 nov. 2026
Marché ouvert
May 27, 2026, 11:20 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, in the 2026 midterm elections, Republicans win a gubernatorial or US Senate election in any state that was won by Donald Trump in the the 2024 US presidential election but was not won by Donald Trump in the 2020 election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the results of all elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. For purposes of this market, the relevant states won by Donald Trump in 2024 but not in 2020 are Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona. No other states will be considered for purposes of this market, and no disputes of any state result from 2020 or 2024 will be considered relevant. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A Senate candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by either the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/), or by the official state election authorities of the states listed above.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, in the 2026 midterm elections, Republicans win a gubernatorial or US Senate election in any state that was won by Donald Trump in the the 2024 US presidential election but was not won by Donald Trump in the 2020 election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the results of all elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. For purposes of this market, the relevant states won by Donald Trump in 2024 but not in 2020 are Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona. No other states will be considered for purposes of this market, and no disputes of any state result from 2020 or 2024 will be considered relevant. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A Senate candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by either the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/), or by the official state election authorities of the states listed above. Republicans hold strong positions in several 2026 races within the six Biden-Trump states (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin). Key contests include the Georgia Senate seat held by Democrat Jon Ossoff, facing a Republican primary runoff, and Democratic-held governorships in Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. These states shifted to Trump in 2024 after supporting Biden in 2020, creating a midterm environment where Republican candidates often benefit from the prior presidential result and turnout patterns. Trader pricing reflects this combination of map exposure and historical midterm dynamics favoring the out-party.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, in the 2026 midterm elections, Republicans win a gubernatorial or US Senate election in any state that was won by Donald Trump in the the 2024 US presidential election but was not won by Donald Trump in the 2020 election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the results of all elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.

For purposes of this market, the relevant states won by Donald Trump in 2024 but not in 2020 are Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona. No other states will be considered for purposes of this market, and no disputes of any state result from 2020 or 2024 will be considered relevant.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A Senate candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by either the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/), or by the official state election authorities of the states listed above.
Volume
$2,223
Date de fin
3 nov. 2026
Marché ouvert
May 27, 2026, 11:20 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, in the 2026 midterm elections, Republicans win a gubernatorial or US Senate election in any state that was won by Donald Trump in the the 2024 US presidential election but was not won by Donald Trump in the 2020 election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the results of all elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. For purposes of this market, the relevant states won by Donald Trump in 2024 but not in 2020 are Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona. No other states will be considered for purposes of this market, and no disputes of any state result from 2020 or 2024 will be considered relevant. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A Senate candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by either the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/), or by the official state election authorities of the states listed above.

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Questions fréquentes

« Will Republicans win any Senate or Governor's Election in a Biden-Trump state? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket où les traders achètent et vendent des parts « Oui » ou « Non » selon qu'ils estiment que cet événement se produira ou non. La probabilité actuelle selon la communauté est de 72% pour « Yes ». Par exemple, si « Oui » est coté à 72¢, le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 72% que cet événement se produise. Ces cotes changent en permanence à mesure que les traders réagissent aux nouveaux développements et informations. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

« Will Republicans win any Senate or Governor's Election in a Biden-Trump state? » est un marché nouvellement créé sur Polymarket, lancé le May 27, 2026. En tant que marché récent, c'est votre opportunité d'être parmi les premiers traders à définir les cotes et établir les premiers signaux de prix du marché. Vous pouvez également ajouter cette page à vos favoris pour suivre le volume et l'activité de trading au fil du temps.

Pour trader sur « Will Republicans win any Senate or Governor's Election in a Biden-Trump state? », choisissez simplement si vous pensez que la réponse est « Oui » ou « Non ». Chaque côté a un prix actuel qui reflète la probabilité implicite du marché. Entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si vous achetez des parts « Oui » et que le résultat se résout comme « Oui », chaque part rapporte $1. S'il se résout comme « Non », vos parts « Oui » rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts à tout moment avant la résolution pour sécuriser un gain ou limiter une perte.

La probabilité actuelle pour « Will Republicans win any Senate or Governor's Election in a Biden-Trump state? » est de 72% pour « Yes ». Cela signifie que la communauté Polymarket estime actuellement qu'il y a une probabilité de 72% que cet événement se produise. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel sur la base de transactions réelles, fournissant un signal continuellement actualisé de ce que le marché attend.

Les règles de résolution de « Will Republicans win any Senate or Governor's Election in a Biden-Trump state? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.