**Trader consensus positions the lowest posting range (<5) at 64% because Mojtaba Khamenei’s official X account (@MKhamenei_ir) has historically maintained low weekly volume outside targeted announcements.** The account, which posts official decrees, appointments, and statements often translated from Persian, typically issues only a handful of updates per week during routine periods. Higher ranges (5-9 at 27.5%, 10-14 at 27%) reflect the possibility of modest increases tied to ongoing military or security matters, while ranges above 15-20 remain lower-probability as they would require sustained activity uncommon for the platform. Recent developments center on the August 10 reshuffle, when the account posted at least five decrees on IRGC leadership changes, Basij appointments, and armed-forces integration—marking a temporary spike amid broader regional tensions with the United States and Israel. No comparable cluster of scheduled decisions, summits, or public statements is currently timed for August 21-28. Traders therefore treat the baseline rate as the dominant factor, with any deviation dependent on unforeseen escalations or official responses within the resolution window.