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Monde·Canada

Laviolette–Saint-Maurice Vainqueur de l'élection à l'Assemblée nationale du Québec

icon for Laviolette–Saint-Maurice Vainqueur de l'élection à l'Assemblée nationale du Québec
Monde·Canada

Laviolette–Saint-Maurice Vainqueur de l'élection à l'Assemblée nationale du Québec

Élodie Murphy-Gauthier 44%

Guy Veillette 44%

Laurent Bélisle 44%

Charles Paquin 44%

Polymarket
NOUVEAU

Élodie Murphy-Gauthier 44%

Guy Veillette 44%

Laurent Bélisle 44%

Charles Paquin 44%

Polymarket
NOUVEAU
icon for Élodie Murphy-Gauthier

Élodie Murphy-Gauthier

$0 Vol.

44%

icon for Guy Veillette

Guy Veillette

$0 Vol.

44%

icon for Laurent Bélisle

Laurent Bélisle

$0 Vol.

44%

icon for Charles Paquin

Charles Paquin

$0 Vol.

44%

Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Laviolette–Saint-Maurice Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).**In the Laviolette–Saint-Maurice riding ahead of the October 5, 2026 Quebec general election, trader consensus reflects a tight contest shaped by the retirement of longtime CAQ incumbent Marie-Louise Tardif and strong competition between the CAQ’s Guy Veillette and the PQ’s Élodie Murphy-Gauthier.** Veillette, a longtime local journalist with deep community ties, and Murphy-Gauthier, a family physician focused on health and social services, anchor the race. Late-August projections show a near toss-up, with CAQ and PQ vote shares separated by just a few points amid notable PCQ support that could split the vote. Provincial trends featuring a competitive PQ-CAQ dynamic in the Mauricie region, combined with the open seat and the short post-writ campaign period, keep implied probabilities closely matched across leading candidates. Late developments such as candidate debates, regional turnout patterns, or shifts in francophone voter preferences could widen gaps before election day.

Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Laviolette–Saint-Maurice Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter.

If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).
Volume
$0
Date de fin
5 oct. 2026
Marché ouvert
Aug 31, 2026, 3:48 PM ET

Source de résolution

https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/

Résolveur

0x69c47De9D...
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Laviolette–Saint-Maurice Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Laviolette–Saint-Maurice Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).**In the Laviolette–Saint-Maurice riding ahead of the October 5, 2026 Quebec general election, trader consensus reflects a tight contest shaped by the retirement of longtime CAQ incumbent Marie-Louise Tardif and strong competition between the CAQ’s Guy Veillette and the PQ’s Élodie Murphy-Gauthier.** Veillette, a longtime local journalist with deep community ties, and Murphy-Gauthier, a family physician focused on health and social services, anchor the race. Late-August projections show a near toss-up, with CAQ and PQ vote shares separated by just a few points amid notable PCQ support that could split the vote. Provincial trends featuring a competitive PQ-CAQ dynamic in the Mauricie region, combined with the open seat and the short post-writ campaign period, keep implied probabilities closely matched across leading candidates. Late developments such as candidate debates, regional turnout patterns, or shifts in francophone voter preferences could widen gaps before election day.

Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Laviolette–Saint-Maurice Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter.

If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).
Volume
$0
Date de fin
5 oct. 2026
Marché ouvert
Aug 31, 2026, 3:48 PM ET

Source de résolution

https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/

Résolveur

0x69c47De9D...
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Laviolette–Saint-Maurice Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).

Connexes

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Méfiez-vous des liens externes.

Questions fréquentes

« Laviolette–Saint-Maurice Vainqueur de l'élection à l'Assemblée nationale du Québec » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 4 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Élodie Murphy-Gauthier » à 44%, suivi de « Guy Veillette » à 44%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 44¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 44% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

« Laviolette–Saint-Maurice Vainqueur de l'élection à l'Assemblée nationale du Québec » est un marché nouvellement créé sur Polymarket, lancé le Aug 31, 2026. En tant que marché récent, c'est votre opportunité d'être parmi les premiers traders à définir les cotes et établir les premiers signaux de prix du marché. Vous pouvez également ajouter cette page à vos favoris pour suivre le volume et l'activité de trading au fil du temps.

Pour trader sur « Laviolette–Saint-Maurice Vainqueur de l'élection à l'Assemblée nationale du Québec », parcourez les 4 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Laviolette–Saint-Maurice Vainqueur de l'élection à l'Assemblée nationale du Québec » est « Élodie Murphy-Gauthier » à 44%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 44% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Guy Veillette » à 44%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Laviolette–Saint-Maurice Vainqueur de l'élection à l'Assemblée nationale du Québec » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.