**Stéphanie Martin (PQ), Françoise Faverjon-Fortin (CAQ), and Patrick Paquet (PCQ) lead a tight four-way contest in the open Vanier-Les Rivières riding for the October 5, 2026, Quebec general election, with trader prices clustered in the high 30s to low 40s percent range and Charles Hudon (PLQ) further back.** The seat became vacant after incumbent CAQ MNA Mario Asselin opted not to seek re-election. Recent projections from models such as 338Canada and Qc125 place the top three parties within a few points of one another in the mid-20s to low-30s percent, reflecting voter fragmentation in this Quebec City riding. Martin’s journalistic background and focus on municipal issues, Faverjon-Fortin’s business and governance experience as the CAQ nominee, and Paquet’s municipal record plus local name recognition for the PCQ have kept the race competitive. Hudon, a former Sûreté du Québec official recruited by the Liberals, trails in polling. The narrow spread stems from the absence of an incumbent advantage, shifting provincial trends favoring PCQ gains in the region alongside PQ resurgence and residual CAQ support, and local priorities around cost of living, healthcare access, and mobility. With the nomination period closed and the campaign underway, further separation will likely hinge on turnout in key voter blocs and any late shifts in broader Quebec City sentiment before election day.