Mexico’s Q1 2026 GDP contracted 0.8 percent quarter-over-quarter, the weakest print since late 2024 and steeper than consensus, leaving a negative statistical carryover into the second quarter. Soft manufacturing output, weaker services, and tariff-related supply-chain adjustments have tempered near-term momentum, while Banxico’s May 25-basis-point rate cut to 6.50 percent signals policymakers’ focus on supporting slack amid sticky inflation near 4.5 percent. Traders therefore price the 0.0–0.5 percent band highest at 46 percent, with the 1.5–2.0 percent range a close second at 39 percent, reflecting uncertainty over whether June World Cup activity and infrastructure spending can offset subdued domestic demand and export headwinds before the INEGI release.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourMexico GDP growth in Q2 2026?
Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026?
-0,5 à 0,0 % 51%
0.5-1.0% 48%
1.5-2.0% 41%
1.0-1.5% 26%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
30 juil. 2026
< -0,5 %
25%
-0,5 à 0,0 %
28%
0.0-0.5%
48%
0.5-1.0%
27%
1.0-1.5%
26%
1.5-2.0%
41%
2.0-2.5%
11%
2.5%+
11%
-0,5 à 0,0 % 51%
0.5-1.0% 48%
1.5-2.0% 41%
1.0-1.5% 26%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
30 juil. 2026
< -0,5 %
$4 Vol.
25%
-0,5 à 0,0 %
$24 Vol.
28%
0.0-0.5%
$11 Vol.
48%
0.5-1.0%
$6 Vol.
27%
1.0-1.5%
$2 Vol.
26%
1.5-2.0%
$0 Vol.
41%
2.0-2.5%
$0 Vol.
11%
2.5%+
$0 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Mexico’s Q1 2026 GDP contracted 0.8 percent quarter-over-quarter, the weakest print since late 2024 and steeper than consensus, leaving a negative statistical carryover into the second quarter. Soft manufacturing output, weaker services, and tariff-related supply-chain adjustments have tempered near-term momentum, while Banxico’s May 25-basis-point rate cut to 6.50 percent signals policymakers’ focus on supporting slack amid sticky inflation near 4.5 percent. Traders therefore price the 0.0–0.5 percent band highest at 46 percent, with the 1.5–2.0 percent range a close second at 39 percent, reflecting uncertainty over whether June World Cup activity and infrastructure spending can offset subdued domestic demand and export headwinds before the INEGI release.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : May 4, 2026, 11:35 AM ET
Volume
$47Date de fin
30 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
May 4, 2026, 11:35 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Mexico’s Q1 2026 GDP contracted 0.8 percent quarter-over-quarter, the weakest print since late 2024 and steeper than consensus, leaving a negative statistical carryover into the second quarter. Soft manufacturing output, weaker services, and tariff-related supply-chain adjustments have tempered near-term momentum, while Banxico’s May 25-basis-point rate cut to 6.50 percent signals policymakers’ focus on supporting slack amid sticky inflation near 4.5 percent. Traders therefore price the 0.0–0.5 percent band highest at 46 percent, with the 1.5–2.0 percent range a close second at 39 percent, reflecting uncertainty over whether June World Cup activity and infrastructure spending can offset subdued domestic demand and export headwinds before the INEGI release.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$47Date de fin
30 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
May 4, 2026, 11:35 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Mexico’s Q1 2026 GDP contracted 0.8 percent quarter-over-quarter, the weakest print since late 2024 and steeper than consensus, leaving a negative statistical carryover into the second quarter. Soft manufacturing output, weaker services, and tariff-related supply-chain adjustments have tempered near-term momentum, while Banxico’s May 25-basis-point rate cut to 6.50 percent signals policymakers’ focus on supporting slack amid sticky inflation near 4.5 percent. Traders therefore price the 0.0–0.5 percent band highest at 46 percent, with the 1.5–2.0 percent range a close second at 39 percent, reflecting uncertainty over whether June World Cup activity and infrastructure spending can offset subdued domestic demand and export headwinds before the INEGI release.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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