Donavan McKinney defeated incumbent Shri Thanedar in Michigan’s 13th Congressional District Democratic primary on August 4, 2026, by a narrow 51.9% to 48.1% margin according to unofficial results from nearly all precincts. This outcome, confirmed by the Associated Press and multiple outlets shortly after polls closed, produced a roughly 3.8-percentage-point victory that aligns directly with the market’s heavy weighting toward McKinney finishing under 4%. The race featured a progressive challenge backed by organized labor and democratic socialist groups against an incumbent emphasizing federal funding secured during his tenure, with turnout and late-deciding Detroit-area voters cited as decisive factors in the slim result. Official certification remains pending, leaving limited room for minor vote adjustments that could shift the exact margin while preserving the under-4% bracket as the dominant trader consensus.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourMcKinney <4% 99.7%
McKinney 4–8 % 11.8%
McKinney 16 %+ 3.9%
Thanedar <4 % <1%
$15,656 Vol.
$15,656 Vol.
4 août 2026
McKinney 16 %+
4%
McKinney 12–16 %
<1%
McKinney 8–12 %
<1%
McKinney 4–8 %
20%
McKinney <4%
80%
Thanedar <4 %
1%
Thanedar 4–8 %
<1%
McKinney <4% 99.7%
McKinney 4–8 % 11.8%
McKinney 16 %+ 3.9%
Thanedar <4 % <1%
$15,656 Vol.
$15,656 Vol.
4 août 2026
McKinney 16 %+
$3,999 Vol.
4%
McKinney 12–16 %
$2,811 Vol.
<1%
McKinney 8–12 %
$617 Vol.
<1%
McKinney 4–8 %
$708 Vol.
20%
McKinney <4%
$2,777 Vol.
80%
Thanedar <4 %
$2,557 Vol.
1%
Thanedar 4–8 %
$740 Vol.
<1%
The MI-13 Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the MI-13 Democratic Primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Michigan, such as official statewide results published by the Michigan Secretary of State (https://www.michigan.gov/sos); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Donavan McKinney defeated incumbent Shri Thanedar in Michigan’s 13th Congressional District Democratic primary on August 4, 2026, by a narrow 51.9% to 48.1% margin according to unofficial results from nearly all precincts. This outcome, confirmed by the Associated Press and multiple outlets shortly after polls closed, produced a roughly 3.8-percentage-point victory that aligns directly with the market’s heavy weighting toward McKinney finishing under 4%. The race featured a progressive challenge backed by organized labor and democratic socialist groups against an incumbent emphasizing federal funding secured during his tenure, with turnout and late-deciding Detroit-area voters cited as decisive factors in the slim result. Official certification remains pending, leaving limited room for minor vote adjustments that could shift the exact margin while preserving the under-4% bracket as the dominant trader consensus.
The MI-13 Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the MI-13 Democratic Primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Michigan, such as official statewide results published by the Michigan Secretary of State (https://www.michigan.gov/sos); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the MI-13 Democratic Primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Michigan, such as official statewide results published by the Michigan Secretary of State (https://www.michigan.gov/sos); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Marché ouvert : Jul 27, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Volume
$15,656Date de fin
4 août 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 27, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The MI-13 Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the MI-13 Democratic Primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Michigan, such as official statewide results published by the Michigan Secretary of State (https://www.michigan.gov/sos); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Donavan McKinney defeated incumbent Shri Thanedar in Michigan’s 13th Congressional District Democratic primary on August 4, 2026, by a narrow 51.9% to 48.1% margin according to unofficial results from nearly all precincts. This outcome, confirmed by the Associated Press and multiple outlets shortly after polls closed, produced a roughly 3.8-percentage-point victory that aligns directly with the market’s heavy weighting toward McKinney finishing under 4%. The race featured a progressive challenge backed by organized labor and democratic socialist groups against an incumbent emphasizing federal funding secured during his tenure, with turnout and late-deciding Detroit-area voters cited as decisive factors in the slim result. Official certification remains pending, leaving limited room for minor vote adjustments that could shift the exact margin while preserving the under-4% bracket as the dominant trader consensus.
The MI-13 Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the MI-13 Democratic Primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Michigan, such as official statewide results published by the Michigan Secretary of State (https://www.michigan.gov/sos); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the MI-13 Democratic Primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Michigan, such as official statewide results published by the Michigan Secretary of State (https://www.michigan.gov/sos); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$15,656Date de fin
4 août 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 27, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Donavan McKinney defeated incumbent Shri Thanedar in Michigan’s 13th Congressional District Democratic primary on August 4, 2026, by a narrow 51.9% to 48.1% margin according to unofficial results from nearly all precincts. This outcome, confirmed by the Associated Press and multiple outlets shortly after polls closed, produced a roughly 3.8-percentage-point victory that aligns directly with the market’s heavy weighting toward McKinney finishing under 4%. The race featured a progressive challenge backed by organized labor and democratic socialist groups against an incumbent emphasizing federal funding secured during his tenure, with turnout and late-deciding Detroit-area voters cited as decisive factors in the slim result. Official certification remains pending, leaving limited room for minor vote adjustments that could shift the exact margin while preserving the under-4% bracket as the dominant trader consensus.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourConnexes
Est-ce qu'Abdul El-Sayed gagnera la primaire démocrate au Sénat du Michigan avec moins de 5 % d'avance ?
99%
Oui
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MI-13 House election by 65% or more?
37%
Darializa Avila Chevalier remportera-t-elle la primaire démocrate du NY-13 avec moins de 5 % d'écart ?
98%
Oui
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