The Northern Nalšia district by-election, set for 8 November 2026 with a possible runoff, remains closely contested after the sudden death of incumbent Liberal Movement MP Jevgenij Šuklin triggered the vacancy under Lithuanian electoral rules. Trader consensus shows Gintautas Kindurys of the Lithuanian Farmers and Greens Union as the narrow leader amid a crowded field that includes Mėta Palauskaitė of the Liberals' Movement, Vladislav Kondratovič of the Social Democrats, Andrej Šildiajėv of the Homeland Union, and several smaller-party or independent contenders. Recent candidate registration, signature thresholds, and one independent withdrawal have not produced decisive shifts, leaving probabilities tight due to the constituency's mixed 2024 voting patterns, limited recent polling, and the multi-round system that rewards broad first-round support. Upcoming confirmation deadlines and campaign events through October could clarify frontrunners before voting.