Brazil’s October 2026 presidential election pits incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva against Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, who remains imprisoned on coup-related convictions. Recent Datafolha, Quaest, AtlasIntel, and BTG/Nexus surveys show the pair statistically tied in simulated runoffs, with Lula holding slim leads or narrow deficits within margins of error; first-round figures place Lula near 37-40% and Flávio near 33-36%. Key drivers include voter economic concerns, Lula’s recent welfare expansions, and lingering polarization from the prior administration. The first round occurs October 4, with any runoff set for October 25; outcomes hinge on turnout among undecided voters and third-candidate fragmentation. Trader consensus reflects this narrow contest.