Lula holds an 86.5% implied probability of finishing first in Amazonas in the October 4 first round, reflecting regional polling that shows him ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro by nine points locally even as national surveys remain tighter. Recent Instituto Action data in Amazonas gave Lula 46% to Bolsonaro’s 37%, consistent with PT strength in the Northern region’s larger electorates such as Amazonas and Pará. Bolsonaro’s PL campaign has gained ground elsewhere in the North but trails in these two states that together represent over half the region’s voters. Lower-probability options such as Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Augusto Cury register in single digits nationally and show even less traction in state-specific surveys, while Lula’s incumbency, running mate Geraldo Alckmin, and recent PT convention activities reinforce his position ahead of the vote.