New York's 12th congressional district, with its D+34 Cook Partisan Voting Index encompassing Manhattan's Upper West and East Sides, overwhelmingly favors Democrats in the November 3, 2026, general election, driving trader consensus to 93.5% for a Democratic Party victory. Longtime incumbent Jerry Nadler's September 2025 retirement opened the seat, sparking a crowded Democratic primary on June 23 featuring contenders like Jack Schlossberg, Micah Lasher, and Alex Bores, but the absence of credible Republican challengers reinforces the baseline expectation of lopsided Democratic dominance, as seen in prior cycles with 70-80% vote shares. Recent primary polls, including New York Times surveys, highlight intra-party competition without altering general election dynamics. Scenarios that could challenge this include a post-primary scandal or indictment against the Democratic nominee, an unexpected national Republican midterm wave, or health issues sidelining the frontrunner.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourVainqueur des élections à la Chambre des représentants NY-12
Vainqueur des élections à la Chambre des représentants NY-12
$17,171 Vol.
$17,171 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
94%
Parti républicain
6%
$17,171 Vol.
$17,171 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
$14,681 Vol.
94%
Parti républicain
$2,490 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).New York's 12th congressional district, with its D+34 Cook Partisan Voting Index encompassing Manhattan's Upper West and East Sides, overwhelmingly favors Democrats in the November 3, 2026, general election, driving trader consensus to 93.5% for a Democratic Party victory. Longtime incumbent Jerry Nadler's September 2025 retirement opened the seat, sparking a crowded Democratic primary on June 23 featuring contenders like Jack Schlossberg, Micah Lasher, and Alex Bores, but the absence of credible Republican challengers reinforces the baseline expectation of lopsided Democratic dominance, as seen in prior cycles with 70-80% vote shares. Recent primary polls, including New York Times surveys, highlight intra-party competition without altering general election dynamics. Scenarios that could challenge this include a post-primary scandal or indictment against the Democratic nominee, an unexpected national Republican midterm wave, or health issues sidelining the frontrunner.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$17,171Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).New York's 12th congressional district, with its D+34 Cook Partisan Voting Index encompassing Manhattan's Upper West and East Sides, overwhelmingly favors Democrats in the November 3, 2026, general election, driving trader consensus to 93.5% for a Democratic Party victory. Longtime incumbent Jerry Nadler's September 2025 retirement opened the seat, sparking a crowded Democratic primary on June 23 featuring contenders like Jack Schlossberg, Micah Lasher, and Alex Bores, but the absence of credible Republican challengers reinforces the baseline expectation of lopsided Democratic dominance, as seen in prior cycles with 70-80% vote shares. Recent primary polls, including New York Times surveys, highlight intra-party competition without altering general election dynamics. Scenarios that could challenge this include a post-primary scandal or indictment against the Democratic nominee, an unexpected national Republican midterm wave, or health issues sidelining the frontrunner.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$17,171Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...New York's 12th congressional district, with its D+34 Cook Partisan Voting Index encompassing Manhattan's Upper West and East Sides, overwhelmingly favors Democrats in the November 3, 2026, general election, driving trader consensus to 93.5% for a Democratic Party victory. Longtime incumbent Jerry Nadler's September 2025 retirement opened the seat, sparking a crowded Democratic primary on June 23 featuring contenders like Jack Schlossberg, Micah Lasher, and Alex Bores, but the absence of credible Republican challengers reinforces the baseline expectation of lopsided Democratic dominance, as seen in prior cycles with 70-80% vote shares. Recent primary polls, including New York Times surveys, highlight intra-party competition without altering general election dynamics. Scenarios that could challenge this include a post-primary scandal or indictment against the Democratic nominee, an unexpected national Republican midterm wave, or health issues sidelining the frontrunner.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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