Traders assign a 98.3% probability that Tucker Carlson will not face federal charges because no active Department of Justice investigation, indictment, or formal probe targets him under current statutes. As a private media commentator operating independently since departing his prior network role, Carlson has not been linked to any verified allegations involving election interference, financial violations, or other federal offenses that would trigger prosecution. This near-certain consensus stems from the complete absence of recent announcements, leaks, or procedural steps such as subpoenas or grand jury activity in the past 30 days. Scenarios that could still alter the outcome include newly surfaced evidence from unrelated inquiries or an unexpected agency action, though such shifts would require concrete developments absent from official records.