Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including the Iran conflict, have driven sharp rises in energy and fuel prices, pushing UK CPI inflation to 3.3% in March 2026 from 3.0% the prior month and elevating trader expectations for the full-year average. This has concentrated market-implied odds between the 4.0-4.4% and 4.5%+ brackets, reflecting uncertainty over whether the energy shock will persist through the second half or moderate as base effects fade. Bank of England projections and recent forecasts from the OBR and NIESR highlight a trajectory above 3% for much of 2026, with labor market slack providing some offset but not enough to counter near-term cost pressures. Key upcoming data releases on energy prices and May CPI will likely determine whether sentiment shifts toward the higher range or stabilizes around 4%.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourInflation annuelle au Royaume-Uni 2026
Inflation annuelle au Royaume-Uni 2026
4,0-4,4 % 41%
4,5 % + 23%
3,5–3,9 % 15%
1,0–1,4 % 4.5%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
20 janv. 2027
<1,0 %
1%
1,0–1,4 %
4%
1,5–1,9 %
6%
2,0–2,4 %
11%
2,5–2,9 %
8%
3,5–3,9 %
15%
4,0-4,4 %
41%
4,5 % +
36%
4,0-4,4 % 41%
4,5 % + 23%
3,5–3,9 % 15%
1,0–1,4 % 4.5%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
20 janv. 2027
<1,0 %
$802 Vol.
1%
1,0–1,4 %
$330 Vol.
4%
1,5–1,9 %
$483 Vol.
6%
2,0–2,4 %
$305 Vol.
11%
2,5–2,9 %
$385 Vol.
8%
3,5–3,9 %
$525 Vol.
15%
4,0-4,4 %
$420 Vol.
41%
4,5 % +
$1,080 Vol.
36%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the U.K. over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendarRecent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including the Iran conflict, have driven sharp rises in energy and fuel prices, pushing UK CPI inflation to 3.3% in March 2026 from 3.0% the prior month and elevating trader expectations for the full-year average. This has concentrated market-implied odds between the 4.0-4.4% and 4.5%+ brackets, reflecting uncertainty over whether the energy shock will persist through the second half or moderate as base effects fade. Bank of England projections and recent forecasts from the OBR and NIESR highlight a trajectory above 3% for much of 2026, with labor market slack providing some offset but not enough to counter near-term cost pressures. Key upcoming data releases on energy prices and May CPI will likely determine whether sentiment shifts toward the higher range or stabilizes around 4%.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the U.K. over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar
Marché ouvert : Jan 21, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volume
$4,329Date de fin
20 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Jan 21, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the U.K. over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendarRecent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including the Iran conflict, have driven sharp rises in energy and fuel prices, pushing UK CPI inflation to 3.3% in March 2026 from 3.0% the prior month and elevating trader expectations for the full-year average. This has concentrated market-implied odds between the 4.0-4.4% and 4.5%+ brackets, reflecting uncertainty over whether the energy shock will persist through the second half or moderate as base effects fade. Bank of England projections and recent forecasts from the OBR and NIESR highlight a trajectory above 3% for much of 2026, with labor market slack providing some offset but not enough to counter near-term cost pressures. Key upcoming data releases on energy prices and May CPI will likely determine whether sentiment shifts toward the higher range or stabilizes around 4%.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the U.K. over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar
Volume
$4,329Date de fin
20 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Jan 21, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including the Iran conflict, have driven sharp rises in energy and fuel prices, pushing UK CPI inflation to 3.3% in March 2026 from 3.0% the prior month and elevating trader expectations for the full-year average. This has concentrated market-implied odds between the 4.0-4.4% and 4.5%+ brackets, reflecting uncertainty over whether the energy shock will persist through the second half or moderate as base effects fade. Bank of England projections and recent forecasts from the OBR and NIESR highlight a trajectory above 3% for much of 2026, with labor market slack providing some offset but not enough to counter near-term cost pressures. Key upcoming data releases on energy prices and May CPI will likely determine whether sentiment shifts toward the higher range or stabilizes around 4%.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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