Recent May 2026 data showing a sharp widening to a $77.6 billion goods-and-services deficit, driven by a $23 billion surge in imports of AI components, pharmaceuticals, and vehicles alongside weaker exports, has anchored trader focus on the June release. Advance June goods figures indicating a 4.2% narrowing of the goods gap to $101.5 billion, with imports falling 2.6% and exports declining 1.8%, have shifted consensus toward the 70-80 billion band, now carrying 61% implied probability. This reflects expectations that services surplus stability and fading restocking effects will keep the total deficit near recent averages, ahead of the August 4 full BEA release. Market-implied odds also price modest downside risk from potential export volatility.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour70-80B 61%
60-70B 19%
50-60B 10%
80-90B 10%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
4 août 2026
<50B
1%
50-60B
10%
60-70B
19%
70-80B
61%
80-90B
10%
90-100B
9%
100B+
3%
70-80B 61%
60-70B 19%
50-60B 10%
80-90B 10%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
4 août 2026
<50B
$328 Vol.
1%
50-60B
$125 Vol.
10%
60-70B
$257 Vol.
19%
70-80B
$2,910 Vol.
61%
80-90B
$88 Vol.
10%
90-100B
$88 Vol.
9%
100B+
$199 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Deficit for June 2026, according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report scheduled for August 4, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report for the specified month is expected to be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-trade-goods-and-services
Note: This market will resolve based on the Monthly Deficit figure. The Three-Month Moving Average figure will have no bearing on this market. Any revisions to the Trade Deficit figure for the specified month made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for the specified month will not be considered.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent May 2026 data showing a sharp widening to a $77.6 billion goods-and-services deficit, driven by a $23 billion surge in imports of AI components, pharmaceuticals, and vehicles alongside weaker exports, has anchored trader focus on the June release. Advance June goods figures indicating a 4.2% narrowing of the goods gap to $101.5 billion, with imports falling 2.6% and exports declining 1.8%, have shifted consensus toward the 70-80 billion band, now carrying 61% implied probability. This reflects expectations that services surplus stability and fading restocking effects will keep the total deficit near recent averages, ahead of the August 4 full BEA release. Market-implied odds also price modest downside risk from potential export volatility.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Deficit for June 2026, according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report scheduled for August 4, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report for the specified month is expected to be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-trade-goods-and-services
Note: This market will resolve based on the Monthly Deficit figure. The Three-Month Moving Average figure will have no bearing on this market. Any revisions to the Trade Deficit figure for the specified month made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for the specified month will not be considered.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report for the specified month is expected to be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-trade-goods-and-services
Note: This market will resolve based on the Monthly Deficit figure. The Three-Month Moving Average figure will have no bearing on this market. Any revisions to the Trade Deficit figure for the specified month made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for the specified month will not be considered.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Marché ouvert : Jul 29, 2026, 7:08 PM ET
Volume
$3,995Date de fin
4 août 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 29, 2026, 7:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Deficit for June 2026, according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report scheduled for August 4, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report for the specified month is expected to be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-trade-goods-and-services
Note: This market will resolve based on the Monthly Deficit figure. The Three-Month Moving Average figure will have no bearing on this market. Any revisions to the Trade Deficit figure for the specified month made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for the specified month will not be considered.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent May 2026 data showing a sharp widening to a $77.6 billion goods-and-services deficit, driven by a $23 billion surge in imports of AI components, pharmaceuticals, and vehicles alongside weaker exports, has anchored trader focus on the June release. Advance June goods figures indicating a 4.2% narrowing of the goods gap to $101.5 billion, with imports falling 2.6% and exports declining 1.8%, have shifted consensus toward the 70-80 billion band, now carrying 61% implied probability. This reflects expectations that services surplus stability and fading restocking effects will keep the total deficit near recent averages, ahead of the August 4 full BEA release. Market-implied odds also price modest downside risk from potential export volatility.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Deficit for June 2026, according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report scheduled for August 4, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report for the specified month is expected to be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-trade-goods-and-services
Note: This market will resolve based on the Monthly Deficit figure. The Three-Month Moving Average figure will have no bearing on this market. Any revisions to the Trade Deficit figure for the specified month made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for the specified month will not be considered.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report for the specified month is expected to be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-trade-goods-and-services
Note: This market will resolve based on the Monthly Deficit figure. The Three-Month Moving Average figure will have no bearing on this market. Any revisions to the Trade Deficit figure for the specified month made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for the specified month will not be considered.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volume
$3,995Date de fin
4 août 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 29, 2026, 7:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent May 2026 data showing a sharp widening to a $77.6 billion goods-and-services deficit, driven by a $23 billion surge in imports of AI components, pharmaceuticals, and vehicles alongside weaker exports, has anchored trader focus on the June release. Advance June goods figures indicating a 4.2% narrowing of the goods gap to $101.5 billion, with imports falling 2.6% and exports declining 1.8%, have shifted consensus toward the 70-80 billion band, now carrying 61% implied probability. This reflects expectations that services surplus stability and fading restocking effects will keep the total deficit near recent averages, ahead of the August 4 full BEA release. Market-implied odds also price modest downside risk from potential export volatility.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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