Geopolitical risks stemming from the ongoing Iran conflict and dual U.S.-Iranian blockades continue to suppress commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint handling roughly one-fifth of global oil supply. Since the February 2026 outbreak, daily transits have averaged just 5% of pre-war levels near 138 vessels, with recent data showing clusters of loitering tankers and only sporadic crossings—such as 30 vessels reported by Iran’s IRGC overnight on May 14 amid lingering mine threats, elevated war-risk insurance premiums, and redirected U.S. naval enforcement. These dynamics have driven up floating storage inventories above 130 million barrels and supported firmer crude benchmarks while pressuring tanker charter rates. With the May 31 resolution deadline approaching, any sustained uptick in verified daily volume would hinge on further de-escalation signals and reduced insurance costs to restore normal energy-flow expectations.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया$485,025 वॉल्यूम
31 मई, 2026
20+
47%
40+
8%
60+
6%
80+
3%
$485,025 वॉल्यूम
20+
$111,908 वॉल्यूम
47%
40+
$122,649 वॉल्यूम
8%
60+
$68,431 वॉल्यूम
6%
80+
$182,038 वॉल्यूम
3%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Geopolitical risks stemming from the ongoing Iran conflict and dual U.S.-Iranian blockades continue to suppress commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint handling roughly one-fifth of global oil supply. Since the February 2026 outbreak, daily transits have averaged just 5% of pre-war levels near 138 vessels, with recent data showing clusters of loitering tankers and only sporadic crossings—such as 30 vessels reported by Iran’s IRGC overnight on May 14 amid lingering mine threats, elevated war-risk insurance premiums, and redirected U.S. naval enforcement. These dynamics have driven up floating storage inventories above 130 million barrels and supported firmer crude benchmarks while pressuring tanker charter rates. With the May 31 resolution deadline approaching, any sustained uptick in verified daily volume would hinge on further de-escalation signals and reduced insurance costs to restore normal energy-flow expectations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
बाज़ार खुला: Apr 29, 2026, 4:59 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$485,025समाप्ति तिथि
31 मई, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Apr 29, 2026, 4:59 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Geopolitical risks stemming from the ongoing Iran conflict and dual U.S.-Iranian blockades continue to suppress commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint handling roughly one-fifth of global oil supply. Since the February 2026 outbreak, daily transits have averaged just 5% of pre-war levels near 138 vessels, with recent data showing clusters of loitering tankers and only sporadic crossings—such as 30 vessels reported by Iran’s IRGC overnight on May 14 amid lingering mine threats, elevated war-risk insurance premiums, and redirected U.S. naval enforcement. These dynamics have driven up floating storage inventories above 130 million barrels and supported firmer crude benchmarks while pressuring tanker charter rates. With the May 31 resolution deadline approaching, any sustained uptick in verified daily volume would hinge on further de-escalation signals and reduced insurance costs to restore normal energy-flow expectations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
वॉल्यूम
$485,025समाप्ति तिथि
31 मई, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Apr 29, 2026, 4:59 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Geopolitical risks stemming from the ongoing Iran conflict and dual U.S.-Iranian blockades continue to suppress commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint handling roughly one-fifth of global oil supply. Since the February 2026 outbreak, daily transits have averaged just 5% of pre-war levels near 138 vessels, with recent data showing clusters of loitering tankers and only sporadic crossings—such as 30 vessels reported by Iran’s IRGC overnight on May 14 amid lingering mine threats, elevated war-risk insurance premiums, and redirected U.S. naval enforcement. These dynamics have driven up floating storage inventories above 130 million barrels and supported firmer crude benchmarks while pressuring tanker charter rates. With the May 31 resolution deadline approaching, any sustained uptick in verified daily volume would hinge on further de-escalation signals and reduced insurance costs to restore normal energy-flow expectations.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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