Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Persian Gulf, including Iranian restrictions and new transit protocols under the Persian Gulf Strait Authority, have kept commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz at sharply reduced levels since late February 2026. Recent data show daily transits averaging single digits to low teens in early May, far below pre-crisis norms of around 60 vessels per day, due to risks from naval presence, potential hazards, and unresolved US-Iran dynamics despite earlier ceasefire announcements. Traders assign an 86.5% probability to an average of 0-10 ships by end of May, reflecting the slow pace of any recovery and limited progress on safe passage arrangements such as paused US-guided corridors. Key upcoming factors include any shifts in enforcement or diplomatic signals that could ease or extend these constraints within the resolution window.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiAvg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of May?
Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of May?
0-10 87%
10-20 6%
20-40 3.4%
60+ 3.3%
$320,451 Vol.
$320,451 Vol.
May 31, 2026
0-10
87%
10-20
6%
20-40
3%
40-60
2%
60+
3%
0-10 87%
10-20 6%
20-40 3.4%
60+ 3.3%
$320,451 Vol.
$320,451 Vol.
May 31, 2026
0-10
$170,835 Vol.
87%
10-20
$42,858 Vol.
6%
20-40
$34,031 Vol.
3%
40-60
$27,429 Vol.
2%
60+
$45,298 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for May 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to May 31, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for May 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Persian Gulf, including Iranian restrictions and new transit protocols under the Persian Gulf Strait Authority, have kept commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz at sharply reduced levels since late February 2026. Recent data show daily transits averaging single digits to low teens in early May, far below pre-crisis norms of around 60 vessels per day, due to risks from naval presence, potential hazards, and unresolved US-Iran dynamics despite earlier ceasefire announcements. Traders assign an 86.5% probability to an average of 0-10 ships by end of May, reflecting the slow pace of any recovery and limited progress on safe passage arrangements such as paused US-guided corridors. Key upcoming factors include any shifts in enforcement or diplomatic signals that could ease or extend these constraints within the resolution window.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for May 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to May 31, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for May 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to May 31, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for May 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Pasar Dibuka: Apr 30, 2026, 3:15 PM ET
Volume
$320,451Tanggal Berakhir
May 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Apr 30, 2026, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for May 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to May 31, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for May 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Persian Gulf, including Iranian restrictions and new transit protocols under the Persian Gulf Strait Authority, have kept commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz at sharply reduced levels since late February 2026. Recent data show daily transits averaging single digits to low teens in early May, far below pre-crisis norms of around 60 vessels per day, due to risks from naval presence, potential hazards, and unresolved US-Iran dynamics despite earlier ceasefire announcements. Traders assign an 86.5% probability to an average of 0-10 ships by end of May, reflecting the slow pace of any recovery and limited progress on safe passage arrangements such as paused US-guided corridors. Key upcoming factors include any shifts in enforcement or diplomatic signals that could ease or extend these constraints within the resolution window.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for May 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to May 31, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for May 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to May 31, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for May 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$320,451Tanggal Berakhir
May 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Apr 30, 2026, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Persian Gulf, including Iranian restrictions and new transit protocols under the Persian Gulf Strait Authority, have kept commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz at sharply reduced levels since late February 2026. Recent data show daily transits averaging single digits to low teens in early May, far below pre-crisis norms of around 60 vessels per day, due to risks from naval presence, potential hazards, and unresolved US-Iran dynamics despite earlier ceasefire announcements. Traders assign an 86.5% probability to an average of 0-10 ships by end of May, reflecting the slow pace of any recovery and limited progress on safe passage arrangements such as paused US-guided corridors. Key upcoming factors include any shifts in enforcement or diplomatic signals that could ease or extend these constraints within the resolution window.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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