Persistent inflation pressures, including March 2026 CPI rising to 3.3% largely from higher gasoline prices amid Middle East energy shocks, have shifted trader focus toward the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate hike rather than further easing. The FOMC held the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%–3.75% for a third consecutive meeting in April, with market-implied odds now assigning roughly a 37% chance of a hike before year-end and over 70% probability of no change through December. Strong labor market data and elevated energy costs have tempered expectations for cuts, while the next FOMC meeting and upcoming inflation releases remain key catalysts that could alter the path for monetary policy.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui$148,571 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
June Meeting
1%
July Meeting
6%
September Meeting
16%
October Meeting
28%
$148,571 Vol.
June Meeting
$14,616 Vol.
1%
July Meeting
$1,008 Vol.
6%
September Meeting
$161 Vol.
16%
October Meeting
$1,477 Vol.
28%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation pressures, including March 2026 CPI rising to 3.3% largely from higher gasoline prices amid Middle East energy shocks, have shifted trader focus toward the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate hike rather than further easing. The FOMC held the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%–3.75% for a third consecutive meeting in April, with market-implied odds now assigning roughly a 37% chance of a hike before year-end and over 70% probability of no change through December. Strong labor market data and elevated energy costs have tempered expectations for cuts, while the next FOMC meeting and upcoming inflation releases remain key catalysts that could alter the path for monetary policy.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Volume
$148,571Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 29, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation pressures, including March 2026 CPI rising to 3.3% largely from higher gasoline prices amid Middle East energy shocks, have shifted trader focus toward the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate hike rather than further easing. The FOMC held the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%–3.75% for a third consecutive meeting in April, with market-implied odds now assigning roughly a 37% chance of a hike before year-end and over 70% probability of no change through December. Strong labor market data and elevated energy costs have tempered expectations for cuts, while the next FOMC meeting and upcoming inflation releases remain key catalysts that could alter the path for monetary policy.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$148,571Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 29, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent inflation pressures, including March 2026 CPI rising to 3.3% largely from higher gasoline prices amid Middle East energy shocks, have shifted trader focus toward the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate hike rather than further easing. The FOMC held the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%–3.75% for a third consecutive meeting in April, with market-implied odds now assigning roughly a 37% chance of a hike before year-end and over 70% probability of no change through December. Strong labor market data and elevated energy costs have tempered expectations for cuts, while the next FOMC meeting and upcoming inflation releases remain key catalysts that could alter the path for monetary policy.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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