The Federal Reserve's unanimous September 16, 2026 decision to raise the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4%—its first hike since 2023—serves as the dominant driver of current trader positioning on rate paths. Officials' updated dot plot showed 16 of 18 participants expecting at least one additional quarter-point increase by December, citing elevated inflation (with 2026 PCE projections revised higher to 3.7% headline) amid resilient growth, stable unemployment, and upward pressure from oil prices tied to geopolitical tensions. This follows five prior holds and reflects a hawkish shift under Chair Kevin Warsh, though markets will closely monitor October 27-28 and December 8-9 meetings for confirmation or data-driven revisions to the implied tightening pace.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui$3,931,762 Vol.
Dec 8, 2026
April Meeting
No
June Meeting
No
July Meeting
No
September Meeting
Yes
October Meeting
Yes
$3,931,762 Vol.
April Meeting
$131,308 Vol.
No
June Meeting
$45,785 Vol.
No
July Meeting
$782,907 Vol.
No
September Meeting
$1,909,469 Vol.
Yes
October Meeting
$1,062,293 Vol.
Yes
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Federal Reserve's unanimous September 16, 2026 decision to raise the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4%—its first hike since 2023—serves as the dominant driver of current trader positioning on rate paths. Officials' updated dot plot showed 16 of 18 participants expecting at least one additional quarter-point increase by December, citing elevated inflation (with 2026 PCE projections revised higher to 3.7% headline) amid resilient growth, stable unemployment, and upward pressure from oil prices tied to geopolitical tensions. This follows five prior holds and reflects a hawkish shift under Chair Kevin Warsh, though markets will closely monitor October 27-28 and December 8-9 meetings for confirmation or data-driven revisions to the implied tightening pace.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Volume
$3,931,762Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 29, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Hasil diajukan: Yes
Tidak ada sengketa
Hasil akhir: Yes
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Federal Reserve's unanimous September 16, 2026 decision to raise the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4%—its first hike since 2023—serves as the dominant driver of current trader positioning on rate paths. Officials' updated dot plot showed 16 of 18 participants expecting at least one additional quarter-point increase by December, citing elevated inflation (with 2026 PCE projections revised higher to 3.7% headline) amid resilient growth, stable unemployment, and upward pressure from oil prices tied to geopolitical tensions. This follows five prior holds and reflects a hawkish shift under Chair Kevin Warsh, though markets will closely monitor October 27-28 and December 8-9 meetings for confirmation or data-driven revisions to the implied tightening pace.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$3,931,762Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 29, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Hasil diajukan: Yes
Tidak ada sengketa
Hasil akhir: Yes
The Federal Reserve's unanimous September 16, 2026 decision to raise the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4%—its first hike since 2023—serves as the dominant driver of current trader positioning on rate paths. Officials' updated dot plot showed 16 of 18 participants expecting at least one additional quarter-point increase by December, citing elevated inflation (with 2026 PCE projections revised higher to 3.7% headline) amid resilient growth, stable unemployment, and upward pressure from oil prices tied to geopolitical tensions. This follows five prior holds and reflects a hawkish shift under Chair Kevin Warsh, though markets will closely monitor October 27-28 and December 8-9 meetings for confirmation or data-driven revisions to the implied tightening pace.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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