The closure of the Department of Justice criminal probe into Jerome Powell in April 2026 remains the dominant factor anchoring low implied probabilities of federal charges through year-end. Prosecutors dropped the inquiry into Powell’s June 2025 Senate testimony on Federal Reserve headquarters renovation cost overruns—now estimated near $2.46 billion—after a federal judge quashed subpoenas for lack of evidence and referred the matter to the Fed’s Inspector General, who previously found no fraud. This outcome followed the end of Powell’s term as Chair and aligns with broader market focus on monetary policy independence amid the new administration’s rate pressures. With no active investigation or new catalysts reported since the April referral, trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-zero odds of an indictment by December 31, 2026, absent unexpected congressional or IG developments.