Recent model consensus from the National Weather Service and private forecasters shows a warm front advancing into the Chicago area overnight, with southerly flow and rising dew points lifting the Aug 31 low into the mid-70s. Ensemble guidance clusters around 74–77°F for the daily minimum, reflecting modest spread in boundary-layer mixing and cloud cover that prevents tighter convergence. This pattern aligns with late-August climatology but sits above the 1991–2020 average low of 64°F, explaining the market’s tight grouping of implied probabilities between 72–77°F while lower and higher bins remain less favored. Updated runs through Monday morning will refine steering and moisture details before resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiLowest temperature in Chicago on August 31?
Lowest temperature in Chicago on August 31?
68-69°F 49%
70-71°F 49%
80-81°F 49%
82-83°F 49%
BARU
BARU
Aug 31, 2026
65°F or below
1%
66-67°F
15%
68-69°F
49%
70-71°F
49%
72-73°F
25%
74-75°F
29%
76-77°F
32%
78-79°F
25%
80-81°F
49%
82-83°F
49%
84°F or higher
21%
68-69°F 49%
70-71°F 49%
80-81°F 49%
82-83°F 49%
BARU
BARU
Aug 31, 2026
65°F or below
$130 Vol.
1%
66-67°F
$0 Vol.
15%
68-69°F
$0 Vol.
49%
70-71°F
$0 Vol.
49%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
25%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
29%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
32%
78-79°F
$0 Vol.
25%
80-81°F
$0 Vol.
49%
82-83°F
$0 Vol.
49%
84°F or higher
$0 Vol.
21%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from the National Weather Service and private forecasters shows a warm front advancing into the Chicago area overnight, with southerly flow and rising dew points lifting the Aug 31 low into the mid-70s. Ensemble guidance clusters around 74–77°F for the daily minimum, reflecting modest spread in boundary-layer mixing and cloud cover that prevents tighter convergence. This pattern aligns with late-August climatology but sits above the 1991–2020 average low of 64°F, explaining the market’s tight grouping of implied probabilities between 72–77°F while lower and higher bins remain less favored. Updated runs through Monday morning will refine steering and moisture details before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 29, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Volume
$130Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 29, 2026, 3:29 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from the National Weather Service and private forecasters shows a warm front advancing into the Chicago area overnight, with southerly flow and rising dew points lifting the Aug 31 low into the mid-70s. Ensemble guidance clusters around 74–77°F for the daily minimum, reflecting modest spread in boundary-layer mixing and cloud cover that prevents tighter convergence. This pattern aligns with late-August climatology but sits above the 1991–2020 average low of 64°F, explaining the market’s tight grouping of implied probabilities between 72–77°F while lower and higher bins remain less favored. Updated runs through Monday morning will refine steering and moisture details before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$130Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 29, 2026, 3:29 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus from the National Weather Service and private forecasters shows a warm front advancing into the Chicago area overnight, with southerly flow and rising dew points lifting the Aug 31 low into the mid-70s. Ensemble guidance clusters around 74–77°F for the daily minimum, reflecting modest spread in boundary-layer mixing and cloud cover that prevents tighter convergence. This pattern aligns with late-August climatology but sits above the 1991–2020 average low of 64°F, explaining the market’s tight grouping of implied probabilities between 72–77°F while lower and higher bins remain less favored. Updated runs through Monday morning will refine steering and moisture details before resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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