**Strong model consensus and official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) and global numerical weather prediction systems have driven overwhelming trader confidence toward a 28°C minimum on August 16, 2026.** Typical mid-August subtropical conditions—high pressure with light southerly flow, partly cloudy skies, and scattered showers—support overnight lows near 27–28°C across urban stations, consistent with climatological baselines of 26–28°C and recent AccuWeather/HKO guidance showing 28–33°C ranges. The 99% market-implied probability reflects this alignment of ensemble forecasts and real-time observations, with traders assigning near-zero odds to cooler outcomes absent a rare synoptic shift. An unexpected stronger monsoon surge or localized radiative cooling could theoretically push readings to 27°C or below at certain sites, though current steering patterns and model agreement make such deviations improbable before resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiLowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 16?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 16?
28°C 99%
27°C <1%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
$25,868 Vol.
$25,868 Vol.
Aug 16, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
1%
27°C
1%
28°C
99%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C or higher
<1%
28°C 99%
27°C <1%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
$25,868 Vol.
$25,868 Vol.
Aug 16, 2026
23°C or below
$1,017 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$1,624 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$2,877 Vol.
1%
26°C
$3,346 Vol.
1%
27°C
$2,730 Vol.
1%
28°C
$7,933 Vol.
99%
29°C
$3,114 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$1,440 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$642 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$605 Vol.
<1%
33°C or higher
$540 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Strong model consensus and official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) and global numerical weather prediction systems have driven overwhelming trader confidence toward a 28°C minimum on August 16, 2026.** Typical mid-August subtropical conditions—high pressure with light southerly flow, partly cloudy skies, and scattered showers—support overnight lows near 27–28°C across urban stations, consistent with climatological baselines of 26–28°C and recent AccuWeather/HKO guidance showing 28–33°C ranges. The 99% market-implied probability reflects this alignment of ensemble forecasts and real-time observations, with traders assigning near-zero odds to cooler outcomes absent a rare synoptic shift. An unexpected stronger monsoon surge or localized radiative cooling could theoretically push readings to 27°C or below at certain sites, though current steering patterns and model agreement make such deviations improbable before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 14, 2026, 12:28 AM ET
Volume
$25,868Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 16, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 14, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Strong model consensus and official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) and global numerical weather prediction systems have driven overwhelming trader confidence toward a 28°C minimum on August 16, 2026.** Typical mid-August subtropical conditions—high pressure with light southerly flow, partly cloudy skies, and scattered showers—support overnight lows near 27–28°C across urban stations, consistent with climatological baselines of 26–28°C and recent AccuWeather/HKO guidance showing 28–33°C ranges. The 99% market-implied probability reflects this alignment of ensemble forecasts and real-time observations, with traders assigning near-zero odds to cooler outcomes absent a rare synoptic shift. An unexpected stronger monsoon surge or localized radiative cooling could theoretically push readings to 27°C or below at certain sites, though current steering patterns and model agreement make such deviations improbable before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$25,868Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 16, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 14, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Strong model consensus and official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) and global numerical weather prediction systems have driven overwhelming trader confidence toward a 28°C minimum on August 16, 2026.** Typical mid-August subtropical conditions—high pressure with light southerly flow, partly cloudy skies, and scattered showers—support overnight lows near 27–28°C across urban stations, consistent with climatological baselines of 26–28°C and recent AccuWeather/HKO guidance showing 28–33°C ranges. The 99% market-implied probability reflects this alignment of ensemble forecasts and real-time observations, with traders assigning near-zero odds to cooler outcomes absent a rare synoptic shift. An unexpected stronger monsoon surge or localized radiative cooling could theoretically push readings to 27°C or below at certain sites, though current steering patterns and model agreement make such deviations improbable before resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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