Latest GFS and ensemble guidance point to overnight radiative cooling under high pressure and light northerly flow, supporting a daily minimum near 14°C for Paris on September 12. Model consensus shows limited spread around this value, with 850 hPa temperatures and clear to partly cloudy conditions favoring modest boundary-layer cooling below the seasonal average low of 11.8°C. Key variables differentiating the closely matched 12–14°C outcomes include small differences in low-level wind speeds, dewpoint depression, and any timing shifts in thin cloud cover that could alter surface heat loss. Updated ECMWF and GFS runs expected over the next 24 hours will provide the primary inputs for refining these probabilities before resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiLowest temperature in Paris on September 12?
Lowest temperature in Paris on September 12?
12°C 38%
13°C 35%
15°C 25%
11°C 24%
BARU
BARU
Sep 12, 2026
8°C or below
3%
9°C
3%
10°C
3%
11°C
24%
12°C
27%
13°C
35%
14°C
17%
15°C
25%
16°C
3%
17°C
3%
18°C or higher
3%
12°C 38%
13°C 35%
15°C 25%
11°C 24%
BARU
BARU
Sep 12, 2026
8°C or below
$0 Vol.
3%
9°C
$0 Vol.
3%
10°C
$0 Vol.
3%
11°C
$0 Vol.
24%
12°C
$88 Vol.
27%
13°C
$361 Vol.
35%
14°C
$235 Vol.
17%
15°C
$0 Vol.
25%
16°C
$0 Vol.
3%
17°C
$0 Vol.
3%
18°C or higher
$0 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest GFS and ensemble guidance point to overnight radiative cooling under high pressure and light northerly flow, supporting a daily minimum near 14°C for Paris on September 12. Model consensus shows limited spread around this value, with 850 hPa temperatures and clear to partly cloudy conditions favoring modest boundary-layer cooling below the seasonal average low of 11.8°C. Key variables differentiating the closely matched 12–14°C outcomes include small differences in low-level wind speeds, dewpoint depression, and any timing shifts in thin cloud cover that could alter surface heat loss. Updated ECMWF and GFS runs expected over the next 24 hours will provide the primary inputs for refining these probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 10, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$684Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 12, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 10, 2026, 12:29 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest GFS and ensemble guidance point to overnight radiative cooling under high pressure and light northerly flow, supporting a daily minimum near 14°C for Paris on September 12. Model consensus shows limited spread around this value, with 850 hPa temperatures and clear to partly cloudy conditions favoring modest boundary-layer cooling below the seasonal average low of 11.8°C. Key variables differentiating the closely matched 12–14°C outcomes include small differences in low-level wind speeds, dewpoint depression, and any timing shifts in thin cloud cover that could alter surface heat loss. Updated ECMWF and GFS runs expected over the next 24 hours will provide the primary inputs for refining these probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$684Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 12, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 10, 2026, 12:29 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest GFS and ensemble guidance point to overnight radiative cooling under high pressure and light northerly flow, supporting a daily minimum near 14°C for Paris on September 12. Model consensus shows limited spread around this value, with 850 hPa temperatures and clear to partly cloudy conditions favoring modest boundary-layer cooling below the seasonal average low of 11.8°C. Key variables differentiating the closely matched 12–14°C outcomes include small differences in low-level wind speeds, dewpoint depression, and any timing shifts in thin cloud cover that could alter surface heat loss. Updated ECMWF and GFS runs expected over the next 24 hours will provide the primary inputs for refining these probabilities before resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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