Recent polling from Demoskop, covering late July to mid-August 2026, places Kristdemokraterna (KD) at 7.5%, above the 6% threshold and reflecting a modest upward trend of roughly one percentage point over the prior month. As a junior partner in the Tidö coalition government alongside the Moderates and Liberals—with external support from the Sweden Democrats—KD has backed recent parliamentary votes tightening family immigration rules, which passed narrowly in mid-August. These developments occur weeks before the September 13 election, where KD's performance influences bloc viability amid broader right-leaning support hovering near 47%. Trader pricing for an "over" outcome at 60.5% tracks this polling trajectory and the party's established role in coalition negotiations, though outcomes remain sensitive to final turnout and vote distribution across smaller parties.