Erdoğan's current presidential term runs until 2028 under Turkey's constitutional limits, with scheduled elections set for May of that year and no parliamentary mechanism or institutional pressure in place to force an earlier exit. The ruling AKP maintains legislative control alongside its allies, while recent legal actions against the main opposition CHP—including court rulings against its leadership and the imprisonment of Istanbul mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu—have weakened potential challengers and reduced near-term risks to the incumbent. Erdoğan has repeatedly stated his intention to retire from politics at the end of the term rather than pursue constitutional changes or snap votes that could extend his tenure. With no verifiable health developments, resignation signals, or scheduled votes capable of triggering removal before December 31, 2026, trader consensus reflects the absence of credible short-term catalysts for departure.