The Republican primary for Florida’s 22nd congressional district remains a tight three-way contest heading into the August 18 vote, with Belinda Keiser, Michael Carbonara, and Casey Askar each self-funding millions and polling within a statistical tie amid more than 40 percent undecided voters. Recent Club for Growth endorsement of Carbonara and associated advertising against Askar have introduced modest differentiation, while fundraising, name recognition, and voter outreach in the redrawn Broward-to-Naples district continue to shape positioning. Limited polling and the absence of major external endorsements have kept probabilities compressed among the top contenders, with lower-polling candidates such as David Burck trailing further behind. Late shifts in undecided support or additional outside spending could still alter the outcome before ballots are cast.