Recent weather model consensus from regional forecasting centers indicates a likely daily maximum near 16–17°C in Ankara on May 18, driven by a weakening high-pressure ridge allowing moderate westerly flow and partial cloud cover that limits daytime heating. Ensemble runs show modest spread due to uncertainty in exact timing of any passing frontal boundary, with drier air masses favoring the central range while any increased moisture could suppress peaks below 15°C. Historical May climatology places average maxima around 22°C, underscoring how the current pattern represents a cooler-than-normal deviation. Traders weigh these variables against potential model updates from the Turkish State Meteorological Service over the next 48 hours, which could shift implied probabilities if guidance trends warmer or cooler.