Recent National Weather Service and NOAA model consensus points to scattered thunderstorms and increased cloud cover limiting Chicago's peak temperature on August 5, 2026, driving the market's heaviest weighting toward the 78–81°F range. Lake Michigan's moderating influence, combined with southwest flow and potential for early afternoon convection, creates a narrow window for surface heating before widespread precipitation develops. Historical August normals near 83–84°F provide context for why traders assign lower probability to 82°F+, while model spread on storm initiation timing sustains meaningful odds for 76–77°F or 82–83°F outcomes. Updated short-range guidance expected throughout the day will likely refine these market-implied odds as observational data arrives.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più alta di Chicago il 5 agosto?
La temperatura più alta di Chicago il 5 agosto?
80-81°F 36%
78-79°F 23%
82-83°F 23%
76-77°F 10%
NUOVO
$25,339 Vol.
NUOVO
$25,339 Vol.
5 ago 2026
75°F o inferiore
<1%
76-77°F
10%
78-79°F
23%
80-81°F
36%
82-83°F
23%
84-85°F
8%
86-87°F
4%
88-89°F
<1%
90-91°F
<1%
92-93°F
<1%
94°F o superiore
<1%
80-81°F 36%
78-79°F 23%
82-83°F 23%
76-77°F 10%
NUOVO
$25,339 Vol.
NUOVO
$25,339 Vol.
5 ago 2026
75°F o inferiore
$7,250 Vol.
<1%
76-77°F
$2,697 Vol.
10%
78-79°F
$2,136 Vol.
23%
80-81°F
$3,678 Vol.
36%
82-83°F
$1,499 Vol.
23%
84-85°F
$3,791 Vol.
8%
86-87°F
$1,832 Vol.
4%
88-89°F
$903 Vol.
<1%
90-91°F
$547 Vol.
<1%
92-93°F
$524 Vol.
<1%
94°F o superiore
$483 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and NOAA model consensus points to scattered thunderstorms and increased cloud cover limiting Chicago's peak temperature on August 5, 2026, driving the market's heaviest weighting toward the 78–81°F range. Lake Michigan's moderating influence, combined with southwest flow and potential for early afternoon convection, creates a narrow window for surface heating before widespread precipitation develops. Historical August normals near 83–84°F provide context for why traders assign lower probability to 82°F+, while model spread on storm initiation timing sustains meaningful odds for 76–77°F or 82–83°F outcomes. Updated short-range guidance expected throughout the day will likely refine these market-implied odds as observational data arrives.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Aug 3, 2026, 9:03 PM ET
Volume
$25,339Data di fine
5 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 3, 2026, 9:03 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and NOAA model consensus points to scattered thunderstorms and increased cloud cover limiting Chicago's peak temperature on August 5, 2026, driving the market's heaviest weighting toward the 78–81°F range. Lake Michigan's moderating influence, combined with southwest flow and potential for early afternoon convection, creates a narrow window for surface heating before widespread precipitation develops. Historical August normals near 83–84°F provide context for why traders assign lower probability to 82°F+, while model spread on storm initiation timing sustains meaningful odds for 76–77°F or 82–83°F outcomes. Updated short-range guidance expected throughout the day will likely refine these market-implied odds as observational data arrives.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$25,339Data di fine
5 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 3, 2026, 9:03 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and NOAA model consensus points to scattered thunderstorms and increased cloud cover limiting Chicago's peak temperature on August 5, 2026, driving the market's heaviest weighting toward the 78–81°F range. Lake Michigan's moderating influence, combined with southwest flow and potential for early afternoon convection, creates a narrow window for surface heating before widespread precipitation develops. Historical August normals near 83–84°F provide context for why traders assign lower probability to 82°F+, while model spread on storm initiation timing sustains meaningful odds for 76–77°F or 82–83°F outcomes. Updated short-range guidance expected throughout the day will likely refine these market-implied odds as observational data arrives.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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