Ongoing heatwave conditions across central Spain, driven by a strong subtropical high-pressure ridge promoting clear skies and intense solar insolation, position Madrid for a maximum near 36°C on August 5 per AEMET and AccuWeather guidance. Subsidence warming and light winds limit cooling, with daytime peaks historically reaching 35–37°C under similar August setups. Latest model runs show minimal spread, supporting the 72.5% market-implied probability for 36°C while capping upside risk for 37°C or higher absent unexpected convective development. Official observations from stations like Ciudad Universitaria will determine resolution against these thresholds.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più alta di Madrid il 5 agosto?
La temperatura più alta di Madrid il 5 agosto?
36°C 74%
35°C 16%
37°C 12%
38°C <1%
$32,557 Vol.
$32,557 Vol.
5 ago 2026
31°C or below
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
16%
36°C
74%
37°C
12%
38°C
<1%
39°C
<1%
40°C
<1%
41°C or higher
<1%
36°C 74%
35°C 16%
37°C 12%
38°C <1%
$32,557 Vol.
$32,557 Vol.
5 ago 2026
31°C or below
$961 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$642 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$985 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$2,069 Vol.
<1%
35°C
$8,875 Vol.
16%
36°C
$5,466 Vol.
74%
37°C
$4,108 Vol.
12%
38°C
$2,010 Vol.
<1%
39°C
$1,192 Vol.
<1%
40°C
$947 Vol.
<1%
41°C or higher
$5,474 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Ongoing heatwave conditions across central Spain, driven by a strong subtropical high-pressure ridge promoting clear skies and intense solar insolation, position Madrid for a maximum near 36°C on August 5 per AEMET and AccuWeather guidance. Subsidence warming and light winds limit cooling, with daytime peaks historically reaching 35–37°C under similar August setups. Latest model runs show minimal spread, supporting the 72.5% market-implied probability for 36°C while capping upside risk for 37°C or higher absent unexpected convective development. Official observations from stations like Ciudad Universitaria will determine resolution against these thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Aug 3, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Volume
$32,557Data di fine
5 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 3, 2026, 12:06 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Ongoing heatwave conditions across central Spain, driven by a strong subtropical high-pressure ridge promoting clear skies and intense solar insolation, position Madrid for a maximum near 36°C on August 5 per AEMET and AccuWeather guidance. Subsidence warming and light winds limit cooling, with daytime peaks historically reaching 35–37°C under similar August setups. Latest model runs show minimal spread, supporting the 72.5% market-implied probability for 36°C while capping upside risk for 37°C or higher absent unexpected convective development. Official observations from stations like Ciudad Universitaria will determine resolution against these thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$32,557Data di fine
5 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 3, 2026, 12:06 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing heatwave conditions across central Spain, driven by a strong subtropical high-pressure ridge promoting clear skies and intense solar insolation, position Madrid for a maximum near 36°C on August 5 per AEMET and AccuWeather guidance. Subsidence warming and light winds limit cooling, with daytime peaks historically reaching 35–37°C under similar August setups. Latest model runs show minimal spread, supporting the 72.5% market-implied probability for 36°C while capping upside risk for 37°C or higher absent unexpected convective development. Official observations from stations like Ciudad Universitaria will determine resolution against these thresholds.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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