Recent PAGASA guidance and supporting numerical weather models indicate a peak of 33–34°C for Manila on May 18 under easterly flow with modest moisture and limited afternoon convection. This aligns with the market’s strongest consensus on 34°C, as historical May climatology at Ninoy Aquino International Airport shows mean daily maxima near 34–35°C, modulated by urban heat-island effects and variable sea-breeze suppression. Traders appear to weigh the risk of a brief 35°C spike if subsidence strengthens, against the possibility of slightly cooler readings if cloud cover increases, producing the close 38 %–31.5 % split between the two leading outcomes. Updated PAGASA briefings tomorrow morning will provide the final observational constraint before market resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più alta a Manila il 18 maggio?
La temperatura più alta a Manila il 18 maggio?
34°C 38%
35°C 34%
33°C 19%
36°C 13.3%
NUOVO
NUOVO
18 mag 2026
29°C o inferiore
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
1%
32°C
4%
33°C
19%
34°C
38%
35°C
34%
36°C
13%
37°C
2%
38°C
<1%
39°C o superiore
<1%
34°C 38%
35°C 34%
33°C 19%
36°C 13.3%
NUOVO
NUOVO
18 mag 2026
29°C o inferiore
$1,013 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$113 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$1,083 Vol.
1%
32°C
$933 Vol.
4%
33°C
$740 Vol.
19%
34°C
$436 Vol.
38%
35°C
$286 Vol.
34%
36°C
$1,005 Vol.
13%
37°C
$343 Vol.
2%
38°C
$343 Vol.
<1%
39°C o superiore
$305 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent PAGASA guidance and supporting numerical weather models indicate a peak of 33–34°C for Manila on May 18 under easterly flow with modest moisture and limited afternoon convection. This aligns with the market’s strongest consensus on 34°C, as historical May climatology at Ninoy Aquino International Airport shows mean daily maxima near 34–35°C, modulated by urban heat-island effects and variable sea-breeze suppression. Traders appear to weigh the risk of a brief 35°C spike if subsidence strengthens, against the possibility of slightly cooler readings if cloud cover increases, producing the close 38 %–31.5 % split between the two leading outcomes. Updated PAGASA briefings tomorrow morning will provide the final observational constraint before market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: May 16, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Volume
$6,581Data di fine
18 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 16, 2026, 12:06 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent PAGASA guidance and supporting numerical weather models indicate a peak of 33–34°C for Manila on May 18 under easterly flow with modest moisture and limited afternoon convection. This aligns with the market’s strongest consensus on 34°C, as historical May climatology at Ninoy Aquino International Airport shows mean daily maxima near 34–35°C, modulated by urban heat-island effects and variable sea-breeze suppression. Traders appear to weigh the risk of a brief 35°C spike if subsidence strengthens, against the possibility of slightly cooler readings if cloud cover increases, producing the close 38 %–31.5 % split between the two leading outcomes. Updated PAGASA briefings tomorrow morning will provide the final observational constraint before market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$6,581Data di fine
18 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 16, 2026, 12:06 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLRecent PAGASA guidance and supporting numerical weather models indicate a peak of 33–34°C for Manila on May 18 under easterly flow with modest moisture and limited afternoon convection. This aligns with the market’s strongest consensus on 34°C, as historical May climatology at Ninoy Aquino International Airport shows mean daily maxima near 34–35°C, modulated by urban heat-island effects and variable sea-breeze suppression. Traders appear to weigh the risk of a brief 35°C spike if subsidence strengthens, against the possibility of slightly cooler readings if cloud cover increases, producing the close 38 %–31.5 % split between the two leading outcomes. Updated PAGASA briefings tomorrow morning will provide the final observational constraint before market resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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