Recent numerical weather prediction models, including consensus runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, point to a peak temperature of 28–29°C in Moscow on May 18 as the most likely outcome, driven by southerly warm-air advection under mostly clear skies and light winds. Ensemble spreads remain narrow, with afternoon boundary-layer heating expected to reach these levels before any evening cooling sets in. Historical May climatology for the city shows mean daily maxima near 18–20°C, so this represents a notable positive anomaly of roughly 8–10°C. Traders appear to weigh the tight clustering between the 28°C and 29°C contracts against modest model uncertainty in exact timing of peak insolation and potential for localized cloud development. Updated high-resolution forecasts and official Hydrometcenter observations tomorrow morning will provide the final calibration before market resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più alta a Mosca il 18 maggio?
La temperatura più alta a Mosca il 18 maggio?
29°C 33%
28°C 29%
30°C 19%
27°C 16%
NUOVO
$10,326 Vol.
NUOVO
$10,326 Vol.
18 mag 2026
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
5%
27°C
16%
28°C
29%
29°C
33%
30°C
19%
31°C or higher
3%
29°C 33%
28°C 29%
30°C 19%
27°C 16%
NUOVO
$10,326 Vol.
NUOVO
$10,326 Vol.
18 mag 2026
21°C or below
$870 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$533 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$1,146 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$2,494 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$1,610 Vol.
1%
26°C
$598 Vol.
5%
27°C
$498 Vol.
16%
28°C
$689 Vol.
29%
29°C
$512 Vol.
33%
30°C
$405 Vol.
19%
31°C or higher
$1,194 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent numerical weather prediction models, including consensus runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, point to a peak temperature of 28–29°C in Moscow on May 18 as the most likely outcome, driven by southerly warm-air advection under mostly clear skies and light winds. Ensemble spreads remain narrow, with afternoon boundary-layer heating expected to reach these levels before any evening cooling sets in. Historical May climatology for the city shows mean daily maxima near 18–20°C, so this represents a notable positive anomaly of roughly 8–10°C. Traders appear to weigh the tight clustering between the 28°C and 29°C contracts against modest model uncertainty in exact timing of peak insolation and potential for localized cloud development. Updated high-resolution forecasts and official Hydrometcenter observations tomorrow morning will provide the final calibration before market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$10,326Data di fine
18 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent numerical weather prediction models, including consensus runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, point to a peak temperature of 28–29°C in Moscow on May 18 as the most likely outcome, driven by southerly warm-air advection under mostly clear skies and light winds. Ensemble spreads remain narrow, with afternoon boundary-layer heating expected to reach these levels before any evening cooling sets in. Historical May climatology for the city shows mean daily maxima near 18–20°C, so this represents a notable positive anomaly of roughly 8–10°C. Traders appear to weigh the tight clustering between the 28°C and 29°C contracts against modest model uncertainty in exact timing of peak insolation and potential for localized cloud development. Updated high-resolution forecasts and official Hydrometcenter observations tomorrow morning will provide the final calibration before market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$10,326Data di fine
18 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ETRecent numerical weather prediction models, including consensus runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, point to a peak temperature of 28–29°C in Moscow on May 18 as the most likely outcome, driven by southerly warm-air advection under mostly clear skies and light winds. Ensemble spreads remain narrow, with afternoon boundary-layer heating expected to reach these levels before any evening cooling sets in. Historical May climatology for the city shows mean daily maxima near 18–20°C, so this represents a notable positive anomaly of roughly 8–10°C. Traders appear to weigh the tight clustering between the 28°C and 29°C contracts against modest model uncertainty in exact timing of peak insolation and potential for localized cloud development. Updated high-resolution forecasts and official Hydrometcenter observations tomorrow morning will provide the final calibration before market resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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