Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts place Tokyo’s maximum temperature on May 17 near 28 °C at the official Otemachi station, driven by a persistent high-pressure ridge that favors southerly warm advection and strong afternoon solar heating under mostly clear skies. Numerical weather prediction models show tight agreement on this value, consistent with mid-May climatology for the Kanto plain where daily highs typically range from 24 °C to 28 °C. The overwhelming market-implied probability for exactly 28 °C reflects this forecast convergence and the limited time remaining for major revisions before the daily maximum is recorded. A sudden increase in cloud cover, stronger northerly flow, or an earlier sea-breeze onset could cap temperatures one degree lower, while any delay in the ridge breakdown might allow a brief push toward 29 °C.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più alta di Tokyo il 17 maggio?
La temperatura più alta di Tokyo il 17 maggio?
28°C 99.5%
30°C or higher <1%
29°C <1%
20°C or below <1%
$68,813 Vol.
$68,813 Vol.
17 mag 2026
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
100%
29°C
<1%
30°C or higher
<1%
28°C 99.5%
30°C or higher <1%
29°C <1%
20°C or below <1%
$68,813 Vol.
$68,813 Vol.
17 mag 2026
20°C or below
$2,924 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$1,793 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$819 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$5,290 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$8,445 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$7,219 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$9,560 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$9,992 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$8,315 Vol.
100%
29°C
$5,913 Vol.
<1%
30°C or higher
$8,906 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts place Tokyo’s maximum temperature on May 17 near 28 °C at the official Otemachi station, driven by a persistent high-pressure ridge that favors southerly warm advection and strong afternoon solar heating under mostly clear skies. Numerical weather prediction models show tight agreement on this value, consistent with mid-May climatology for the Kanto plain where daily highs typically range from 24 °C to 28 °C. The overwhelming market-implied probability for exactly 28 °C reflects this forecast convergence and the limited time remaining for major revisions before the daily maximum is recorded. A sudden increase in cloud cover, stronger northerly flow, or an earlier sea-breeze onset could cap temperatures one degree lower, while any delay in the ridge breakdown might allow a brief push toward 29 °C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$68,813Data di fine
17 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts place Tokyo’s maximum temperature on May 17 near 28 °C at the official Otemachi station, driven by a persistent high-pressure ridge that favors southerly warm advection and strong afternoon solar heating under mostly clear skies. Numerical weather prediction models show tight agreement on this value, consistent with mid-May climatology for the Kanto plain where daily highs typically range from 24 °C to 28 °C. The overwhelming market-implied probability for exactly 28 °C reflects this forecast convergence and the limited time remaining for major revisions before the daily maximum is recorded. A sudden increase in cloud cover, stronger northerly flow, or an earlier sea-breeze onset could cap temperatures one degree lower, while any delay in the ridge breakdown might allow a brief push toward 29 °C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$68,813Data di fine
17 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTRecent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts place Tokyo’s maximum temperature on May 17 near 28 °C at the official Otemachi station, driven by a persistent high-pressure ridge that favors southerly warm advection and strong afternoon solar heating under mostly clear skies. Numerical weather prediction models show tight agreement on this value, consistent with mid-May climatology for the Kanto plain where daily highs typically range from 24 °C to 28 °C. The overwhelming market-implied probability for exactly 28 °C reflects this forecast convergence and the limited time remaining for major revisions before the daily maximum is recorded. A sudden increase in cloud cover, stronger northerly flow, or an earlier sea-breeze onset could cap temperatures one degree lower, while any delay in the ridge breakdown might allow a brief push toward 29 °C.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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