Former Maine Governor Paul LePage commands overwhelming trader consensus at 96.8% implied probability to win the ME-02 Republican primary on June 9, driven by his unmatched name recognition from two gubernatorial terms where he carried the district multiple times with over 50% support, a December 2025 Trump endorsement, and recent NRCC promotion highlighting internal polling leads. Army veteran James Clark, who entered as a self-described moderate challenger in late November 2025, shows no fundraising or polling momentum six months later. NRCC backing and an upcoming JD Vance campaign appearance this week further solidify LePage's position in the low-turnout primary under ranked-choice voting. Realistic challenges would require a late-breaking scandal, health issue for the 77-year-old LePage, or surprise entrant, though none appear imminent amid GOP voter registration gains in the district.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoNUOVO
NUOVO
9 giu 2026
Paul LePage
97%
James Clark
2%
NUOVO
NUOVO
9 giu 2026
Paul LePage
$6,447 Vol.
97%
James Clark
$3,088 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the ME-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on June 9, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Former Maine Governor Paul LePage commands overwhelming trader consensus at 96.8% implied probability to win the ME-02 Republican primary on June 9, driven by his unmatched name recognition from two gubernatorial terms where he carried the district multiple times with over 50% support, a December 2025 Trump endorsement, and recent NRCC promotion highlighting internal polling leads. Army veteran James Clark, who entered as a self-described moderate challenger in late November 2025, shows no fundraising or polling momentum six months later. NRCC backing and an upcoming JD Vance campaign appearance this week further solidify LePage's position in the low-turnout primary under ranked-choice voting. Realistic challenges would require a late-breaking scandal, health issue for the 77-year-old LePage, or surprise entrant, though none appear imminent amid GOP voter registration gains in the district.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the ME-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on June 9, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Mercato aperto: Dec 18, 2025, 3:18 PM ET
Volume
$9,535Data di fine
9 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 18, 2025, 3:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the ME-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on June 9, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Former Maine Governor Paul LePage commands overwhelming trader consensus at 96.8% implied probability to win the ME-02 Republican primary on June 9, driven by his unmatched name recognition from two gubernatorial terms where he carried the district multiple times with over 50% support, a December 2025 Trump endorsement, and recent NRCC promotion highlighting internal polling leads. Army veteran James Clark, who entered as a self-described moderate challenger in late November 2025, shows no fundraising or polling momentum six months later. NRCC backing and an upcoming JD Vance campaign appearance this week further solidify LePage's position in the low-turnout primary under ranked-choice voting. Realistic challenges would require a late-breaking scandal, health issue for the 77-year-old LePage, or surprise entrant, though none appear imminent amid GOP voter registration gains in the district.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the ME-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on June 9, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$9,535Data di fine
9 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 18, 2025, 3:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Former Maine Governor Paul LePage commands overwhelming trader consensus at 96.8% implied probability to win the ME-02 Republican primary on June 9, driven by his unmatched name recognition from two gubernatorial terms where he carried the district multiple times with over 50% support, a December 2025 Trump endorsement, and recent NRCC promotion highlighting internal polling leads. Army veteran James Clark, who entered as a self-described moderate challenger in late November 2025, shows no fundraising or polling momentum six months later. NRCC backing and an upcoming JD Vance campaign appearance this week further solidify LePage's position in the low-turnout primary under ranked-choice voting. Realistic challenges would require a late-breaking scandal, health issue for the 77-year-old LePage, or surprise entrant, though none appear imminent amid GOP voter registration gains in the district.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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