Official canvass results certified in early May confirm Democrat Analilia Mejia's 21-point margin of victory—60% to 39%—over Republican Joe Hathaway in New Jersey's 11th Congressional District special election on April 16, driving Polymarket traders' near-unanimous consensus on the 20-25% outcome at 99.5%. Mejia, a progressive backed by Bernie Sanders and AOC allies, overperformed Kamala Harris's narrow 2024 district win by about 12 points through strong turnout in Hispanic-majority and working-class towns like Dover and Bloomfield, flipping 13 Republican-held precincts despite lower overall participation of roughly 136,000 votes. She underperformed in Jewish-heavy suburbs like Livingston and Millburn amid concerns over her Israel stance. With a 28,000-vote gap, realistic challenges like recounts or legal disputes are improbable absent fraud evidence, though certification appeals could theoretically delay resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoMejia 20-25% 99.5%
Mejia <20% 2.9%
Other <1%
Mejia 40%+ <1%
$26,179 Vol.
$26,179 Vol.
16 apr 2026
Mejia 40%+
<1%
Mejia 35-40%
<1%
Mejia 30-35%
<1%
Mejia 25-30%
<1%
Mejia 20-25%
100%
Mejia <20%
3%
Other
1%
Mejia 20-25% 99.5%
Mejia <20% 2.9%
Other <1%
Mejia 40%+ <1%
$26,179 Vol.
$26,179 Vol.
16 apr 2026
Mejia 40%+
$980 Vol.
<1%
Mejia 35-40%
$5,582 Vol.
<1%
Mejia 30-35%
$2,480 Vol.
<1%
Mejia 25-30%
$2,658 Vol.
<1%
Mejia 20-25%
$6,742 Vol.
100%
Mejia <20%
$6,872 Vol.
3%
Other
$865 Vol.
1%
The special election for the seat for New Jersey's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives is currently scheduled to take place on April 16, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Official canvass results certified in early May confirm Democrat Analilia Mejia's 21-point margin of victory—60% to 39%—over Republican Joe Hathaway in New Jersey's 11th Congressional District special election on April 16, driving Polymarket traders' near-unanimous consensus on the 20-25% outcome at 99.5%. Mejia, a progressive backed by Bernie Sanders and AOC allies, overperformed Kamala Harris's narrow 2024 district win by about 12 points through strong turnout in Hispanic-majority and working-class towns like Dover and Bloomfield, flipping 13 Republican-held precincts despite lower overall participation of roughly 136,000 votes. She underperformed in Jewish-heavy suburbs like Livingston and Millburn amid concerns over her Israel stance. With a 28,000-vote gap, realistic challenges like recounts or legal disputes are improbable absent fraud evidence, though certification appeals could theoretically delay resolution.
The special election for the seat for New Jersey's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives is currently scheduled to take place on April 16, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Mercato aperto: Apr 16, 2026, 12:18 PM ET
Volume
$26,179Data di fine
16 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 16, 2026, 12:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The special election for the seat for New Jersey's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives is currently scheduled to take place on April 16, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Official canvass results certified in early May confirm Democrat Analilia Mejia's 21-point margin of victory—60% to 39%—over Republican Joe Hathaway in New Jersey's 11th Congressional District special election on April 16, driving Polymarket traders' near-unanimous consensus on the 20-25% outcome at 99.5%. Mejia, a progressive backed by Bernie Sanders and AOC allies, overperformed Kamala Harris's narrow 2024 district win by about 12 points through strong turnout in Hispanic-majority and working-class towns like Dover and Bloomfield, flipping 13 Republican-held precincts despite lower overall participation of roughly 136,000 votes. She underperformed in Jewish-heavy suburbs like Livingston and Millburn amid concerns over her Israel stance. With a 28,000-vote gap, realistic challenges like recounts or legal disputes are improbable absent fraud evidence, though certification appeals could theoretically delay resolution.
The special election for the seat for New Jersey's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives is currently scheduled to take place on April 16, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$26,179Data di fine
16 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 16, 2026, 12:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official canvass results certified in early May confirm Democrat Analilia Mejia's 21-point margin of victory—60% to 39%—over Republican Joe Hathaway in New Jersey's 11th Congressional District special election on April 16, driving Polymarket traders' near-unanimous consensus on the 20-25% outcome at 99.5%. Mejia, a progressive backed by Bernie Sanders and AOC allies, overperformed Kamala Harris's narrow 2024 district win by about 12 points through strong turnout in Hispanic-majority and working-class towns like Dover and Bloomfield, flipping 13 Republican-held precincts despite lower overall participation of roughly 136,000 votes. She underperformed in Jewish-heavy suburbs like Livingston and Millburn amid concerns over her Israel stance. With a 28,000-vote gap, realistic challenges like recounts or legal disputes are improbable absent fraud evidence, though certification appeals could theoretically delay resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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