Ongoing military operations and stalled diplomacy explain the overwhelming trader consensus against a Ukraine-Russia peace deal by August 31. Recent Ukrainian advances liberating settlements in Dnipropetrovsk and continued cross-border strikes have coincided with Russian insistence on territorial concessions and security vetoes that remain unresolved after multiple 2026 negotiation rounds. No new proposals emerged in late July or August, and fundamental gaps on borders, neutrality guarantees, and ceasefires persist. With roughly two weeks remaining, the timeline leaves little room for the complex approvals required. A sudden bilateral breakthrough or external pressure yielding rapid concessions could theoretically shift the outcome, though historical patterns of incremental talks suggest such developments remain improbable before the deadline.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
1% probabilità
$260,211 Vol.
$260,211 Vol.
31 ago 2026
Sì
1% probabilità
$260,211 Vol.
$260,211 Vol.
31 ago 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Ongoing military operations and stalled diplomacy explain the overwhelming trader consensus against a Ukraine-Russia peace deal by August 31. Recent Ukrainian advances liberating settlements in Dnipropetrovsk and continued cross-border strikes have coincided with Russian insistence on territorial concessions and security vetoes that remain unresolved after multiple 2026 negotiation rounds. No new proposals emerged in late July or August, and fundamental gaps on borders, neutrality guarantees, and ceasefires persist. With roughly two weeks remaining, the timeline leaves little room for the complex approvals required. A sudden bilateral breakthrough or external pressure yielding rapid concessions could theoretically shift the outcome, though historical patterns of incremental talks suggest such developments remain improbable before the deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Jun 18, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
Volume
$260,211Data di fine
31 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 18, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Ongoing military operations and stalled diplomacy explain the overwhelming trader consensus against a Ukraine-Russia peace deal by August 31. Recent Ukrainian advances liberating settlements in Dnipropetrovsk and continued cross-border strikes have coincided with Russian insistence on territorial concessions and security vetoes that remain unresolved after multiple 2026 negotiation rounds. No new proposals emerged in late July or August, and fundamental gaps on borders, neutrality guarantees, and ceasefires persist. With roughly two weeks remaining, the timeline leaves little room for the complex approvals required. A sudden bilateral breakthrough or external pressure yielding rapid concessions could theoretically shift the outcome, though historical patterns of incremental talks suggest such developments remain improbable before the deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$260,211Data di fine
31 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 18, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing military operations and stalled diplomacy explain the overwhelming trader consensus against a Ukraine-Russia peace deal by August 31. Recent Ukrainian advances liberating settlements in Dnipropetrovsk and continued cross-border strikes have coincided with Russian insistence on territorial concessions and security vetoes that remain unresolved after multiple 2026 negotiation rounds. No new proposals emerged in late July or August, and fundamental gaps on borders, neutrality guarantees, and ceasefires persist. With roughly two weeks remaining, the timeline leaves little room for the complex approvals required. A sudden bilateral breakthrough or external pressure yielding rapid concessions could theoretically shift the outcome, though historical patterns of incremental talks suggest such developments remain improbable before the deadline.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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