Recent May data showing a sharp widening to $77.6 billion—driven by a $23 billion jump in the goods deficit to $106.5 billion amid rising imports of AI-related components, pharmaceuticals, and vehicles alongside softer exports—has anchored trader expectations for June near that level. Advance June goods figures indicated modest narrowing to a $101.5 billion gap as both imports and exports declined, consistent with fading front-loading ahead of tariffs and softer global demand, which when combined with a stable services surplus around $29 billion points to a full goods-and-services outcome clustered in the $70-80 billion range. Market-implied odds reflect this continuity in underlying trade flows ahead of the August 4 BEA release, tempered by ongoing policy uncertainty around tariffs and the potential for last-minute revisions in seasonal adjustments or data.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato70-80B 78%
60-70B 16%
50-60B 5%
80-90B 4.9%
NUOVO
NUOVO
4 ago 2026
<50B
<1%
50-60B
5%
60-70B
16%
70-80B
78%
80-90B
5%
90-100B
4%
100B+
1%
70-80B 78%
60-70B 16%
50-60B 5%
80-90B 4.9%
NUOVO
NUOVO
4 ago 2026
<50B
$397 Vol.
<1%
50-60B
$273 Vol.
5%
60-70B
$404 Vol.
16%
70-80B
$5,767 Vol.
78%
80-90B
$236 Vol.
5%
90-100B
$236 Vol.
4%
100B+
$347 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Deficit for June 2026, according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report scheduled for August 4, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report for the specified month is expected to be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-trade-goods-and-services
Note: This market will resolve based on the Monthly Deficit figure. The Three-Month Moving Average figure will have no bearing on this market. Any revisions to the Trade Deficit figure for the specified month made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for the specified month will not be considered.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent May data showing a sharp widening to $77.6 billion—driven by a $23 billion jump in the goods deficit to $106.5 billion amid rising imports of AI-related components, pharmaceuticals, and vehicles alongside softer exports—has anchored trader expectations for June near that level. Advance June goods figures indicated modest narrowing to a $101.5 billion gap as both imports and exports declined, consistent with fading front-loading ahead of tariffs and softer global demand, which when combined with a stable services surplus around $29 billion points to a full goods-and-services outcome clustered in the $70-80 billion range. Market-implied odds reflect this continuity in underlying trade flows ahead of the August 4 BEA release, tempered by ongoing policy uncertainty around tariffs and the potential for last-minute revisions in seasonal adjustments or data.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Deficit for June 2026, according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report scheduled for August 4, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report for the specified month is expected to be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-trade-goods-and-services
Note: This market will resolve based on the Monthly Deficit figure. The Three-Month Moving Average figure will have no bearing on this market. Any revisions to the Trade Deficit figure for the specified month made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for the specified month will not be considered.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report for the specified month is expected to be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-trade-goods-and-services
Note: This market will resolve based on the Monthly Deficit figure. The Three-Month Moving Average figure will have no bearing on this market. Any revisions to the Trade Deficit figure for the specified month made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for the specified month will not be considered.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Mercato aperto: Jul 29, 2026, 7:08 PM ET
Volume
$7,659Data di fine
4 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 29, 2026, 7:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Deficit for June 2026, according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report scheduled for August 4, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report for the specified month is expected to be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-trade-goods-and-services
Note: This market will resolve based on the Monthly Deficit figure. The Three-Month Moving Average figure will have no bearing on this market. Any revisions to the Trade Deficit figure for the specified month made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for the specified month will not be considered.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent May data showing a sharp widening to $77.6 billion—driven by a $23 billion jump in the goods deficit to $106.5 billion amid rising imports of AI-related components, pharmaceuticals, and vehicles alongside softer exports—has anchored trader expectations for June near that level. Advance June goods figures indicated modest narrowing to a $101.5 billion gap as both imports and exports declined, consistent with fading front-loading ahead of tariffs and softer global demand, which when combined with a stable services surplus around $29 billion points to a full goods-and-services outcome clustered in the $70-80 billion range. Market-implied odds reflect this continuity in underlying trade flows ahead of the August 4 BEA release, tempered by ongoing policy uncertainty around tariffs and the potential for last-minute revisions in seasonal adjustments or data.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Deficit for June 2026, according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report scheduled for August 4, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report for the specified month is expected to be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-trade-goods-and-services
Note: This market will resolve based on the Monthly Deficit figure. The Three-Month Moving Average figure will have no bearing on this market. Any revisions to the Trade Deficit figure for the specified month made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for the specified month will not be considered.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report for the specified month is expected to be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-trade-goods-and-services
Note: This market will resolve based on the Monthly Deficit figure. The Three-Month Moving Average figure will have no bearing on this market. Any revisions to the Trade Deficit figure for the specified month made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for the specified month will not be considered.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volume
$7,659Data di fine
4 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 29, 2026, 7:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent May data showing a sharp widening to $77.6 billion—driven by a $23 billion jump in the goods deficit to $106.5 billion amid rising imports of AI-related components, pharmaceuticals, and vehicles alongside softer exports—has anchored trader expectations for June near that level. Advance June goods figures indicated modest narrowing to a $101.5 billion gap as both imports and exports declined, consistent with fading front-loading ahead of tariffs and softer global demand, which when combined with a stable services surplus around $29 billion points to a full goods-and-services outcome clustered in the $70-80 billion range. Market-implied odds reflect this continuity in underlying trade flows ahead of the August 4 BEA release, tempered by ongoing policy uncertainty around tariffs and the potential for last-minute revisions in seasonal adjustments or data.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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