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icon for Un qualsiasi mese del 2026 sarà il più caldo mai registrato?
Clima E Scienza·Weather

Un qualsiasi mese del 2026 sarà il più caldo mai registrato?

icon for Un qualsiasi mese del 2026 sarà il più caldo mai registrato?
Clima E Scienza·Weather

Un qualsiasi mese del 2026 sarà il più caldo mai registrato?

Sì

87% probabilità
Polymarket

$136,756 Vol.

Sì

87% probabilità
Polymarket

$136,756 Vol.

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution. If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Rising global temperatures fueled by record atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations continue to push monthly averages higher, with 2024 and 2025 already producing multiple all-time highs according to NOAA and NASA measurements. This established warming trend underpins the 87% market-implied odds for at least one 2026 month surpassing prior records, even amid neutral ENSO conditions that typically moderate extremes. Ocean heat content and long-term climate indices reinforce the trajectory, while historical baselines show records occurring roughly every few years during the current decade. Upcoming agency updates on global temperature anomalies through mid-year will offer traders additional signals on whether this pattern holds.

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.

This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.

If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Volume
$136,756
Data di fine
10 gen 2027
Mercato aperto
Feb 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution. If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution. If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Rising global temperatures fueled by record atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations continue to push monthly averages higher, with 2024 and 2025 already producing multiple all-time highs according to NOAA and NASA measurements. This established warming trend underpins the 87% market-implied odds for at least one 2026 month surpassing prior records, even amid neutral ENSO conditions that typically moderate extremes. Ocean heat content and long-term climate indices reinforce the trajectory, while historical baselines show records occurring roughly every few years during the current decade. Upcoming agency updates on global temperature anomalies through mid-year will offer traders additional signals on whether this pattern holds.

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.

This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.

If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Volume
$136,757
Data di fine
10 gen 2027
Mercato aperto
Feb 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution. If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.

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Domande frequenti

"Un qualsiasi mese del 2026 sarà il più caldo mai registrato?" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 2 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "Quale mese del 2026 sarà il più caldo mai registrato?" a 87%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 87¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 87% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

Ad oggi, "Un qualsiasi mese del 2026 sarà il più caldo mai registrato?" ha generato $136.8K in volume totale di trading dal lancio del mercato il Feb 9, 2026. Questo livello di attività di trading riflette un forte coinvolgimento della comunità Polymarket e contribuisce a garantire che le quote attuali siano informate da un ampio pool di partecipanti al mercato. Puoi seguire i movimenti di prezzo in tempo reale e fare trading su qualsiasi esito direttamente su questa pagina.

Per fare trading su "Un qualsiasi mese del 2026 sarà il più caldo mai registrato?", esplora i 2 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

L'attuale favorito per "Un qualsiasi mese del 2026 sarà il più caldo mai registrato?" è "Quale mese del 2026 sarà il più caldo mai registrato?" a 87%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 87% a quell'esito. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.

Le regole di risoluzione per "Un qualsiasi mese del 2026 sarà il più caldo mai registrato?" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.