Recent polling averages place the Parti Québécois at roughly 29 percent support ahead of the October 5 election, with the Coalition Avenir Québec closing rapidly to 24–27 percent under leader Christine Fréchette. Seat projections from models such as 338Canada and Poliwave translate this into a likely PQ plurality of 45–48 seats but only a 9–12 percent probability of reaching the 64-seat majority threshold. The CAQ’s gains among francophone and older voters, combined with continued Liberal and Conservative strength that fragments the non-PQ vote, have produced numerous tight ridings. Ongoing campaign dynamics and voter concern over economic stability have further narrowed the PQ’s path, supporting traders’ current assessment that a majority remains unlikely.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato33% probabilità
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NUOVO
5 ott 2026
33% probabilità
NUOVO
NUOVO
5 ott 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti Québécois (PQ) wins at least 64 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling averages place the Parti Québécois at roughly 29 percent support ahead of the October 5 election, with the Coalition Avenir Québec closing rapidly to 24–27 percent under leader Christine Fréchette. Seat projections from models such as 338Canada and Poliwave translate this into a likely PQ plurality of 45–48 seats but only a 9–12 percent probability of reaching the 64-seat majority threshold. The CAQ’s gains among francophone and older voters, combined with continued Liberal and Conservative strength that fragments the non-PQ vote, have produced numerous tight ridings. Ongoing campaign dynamics and voter concern over economic stability have further narrowed the PQ’s path, supporting traders’ current assessment that a majority remains unlikely.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti Québécois (PQ) wins at least 64 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti Québécois (PQ) wins at least 64 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Mercato aperto: Aug 31, 2026, 3:43 PM ET
Volume
$0Data di fine
5 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 31, 2026, 3:43 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti Québécois (PQ) wins at least 64 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling averages place the Parti Québécois at roughly 29 percent support ahead of the October 5 election, with the Coalition Avenir Québec closing rapidly to 24–27 percent under leader Christine Fréchette. Seat projections from models such as 338Canada and Poliwave translate this into a likely PQ plurality of 45–48 seats but only a 9–12 percent probability of reaching the 64-seat majority threshold. The CAQ’s gains among francophone and older voters, combined with continued Liberal and Conservative strength that fragments the non-PQ vote, have produced numerous tight ridings. Ongoing campaign dynamics and voter concern over economic stability have further narrowed the PQ’s path, supporting traders’ current assessment that a majority remains unlikely.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti Québécois (PQ) wins at least 64 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti Québécois (PQ) wins at least 64 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Volume
$0Data di fine
5 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 31, 2026, 3:43 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Recent polling averages place the Parti Québécois at roughly 29 percent support ahead of the October 5 election, with the Coalition Avenir Québec closing rapidly to 24–27 percent under leader Christine Fréchette. Seat projections from models such as 338Canada and Poliwave translate this into a likely PQ plurality of 45–48 seats but only a 9–12 percent probability of reaching the 64-seat majority threshold. The CAQ’s gains among francophone and older voters, combined with continued Liberal and Conservative strength that fragments the non-PQ vote, have produced numerous tight ridings. Ongoing campaign dynamics and voter concern over economic stability have further narrowed the PQ’s path, supporting traders’ current assessment that a majority remains unlikely.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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