Persistent US-Iran tensions since the 1980 severance of diplomatic ties continue to anchor trader expectations against embassy reopening this year. Key drivers include unresolved nuclear negotiations, layered sanctions regimes, and Iran's regional proxy activities amid ongoing Middle East conflicts. No formal diplomatic restoration process or bilateral agreements have advanced in recent months, leaving the structural barriers intact. The 95.5% "No" consensus reflects this entrenched stalemate and historical precedent of minimal engagement. Late 2026 developments such as verified nuclear compliance steps, sanctions relief tied to verified de-escalation, or direct high-level talks could still shift probabilities, though such catalysts remain absent from current timelines.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoGli Stati Uniti riapriranno la loro ambasciata in Iran nel 2026?
Gli Stati Uniti riapriranno la loro ambasciata in Iran nel 2026?
Sì
5% probabilità
$158,294 Vol.
$158,294 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
5% probabilità
$158,294 Vol.
$158,294 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Persistent US-Iran tensions since the 1980 severance of diplomatic ties continue to anchor trader expectations against embassy reopening this year. Key drivers include unresolved nuclear negotiations, layered sanctions regimes, and Iran's regional proxy activities amid ongoing Middle East conflicts. No formal diplomatic restoration process or bilateral agreements have advanced in recent months, leaving the structural barriers intact. The 95.5% "No" consensus reflects this entrenched stalemate and historical precedent of minimal engagement. Late 2026 developments such as verified nuclear compliance steps, sanctions relief tied to verified de-escalation, or direct high-level talks could still shift probabilities, though such catalysts remain absent from current timelines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercato aperto: Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ET
Volume
$158,294Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Persistent US-Iran tensions since the 1980 severance of diplomatic ties continue to anchor trader expectations against embassy reopening this year. Key drivers include unresolved nuclear negotiations, layered sanctions regimes, and Iran's regional proxy activities amid ongoing Middle East conflicts. No formal diplomatic restoration process or bilateral agreements have advanced in recent months, leaving the structural barriers intact. The 95.5% "No" consensus reflects this entrenched stalemate and historical precedent of minimal engagement. Late 2026 developments such as verified nuclear compliance steps, sanctions relief tied to verified de-escalation, or direct high-level talks could still shift probabilities, though such catalysts remain absent from current timelines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$158,294Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent US-Iran tensions since the 1980 severance of diplomatic ties continue to anchor trader expectations against embassy reopening this year. Key drivers include unresolved nuclear negotiations, layered sanctions regimes, and Iran's regional proxy activities amid ongoing Middle East conflicts. No formal diplomatic restoration process or bilateral agreements have advanced in recent months, leaving the structural barriers intact. The 95.5% "No" consensus reflects this entrenched stalemate and historical precedent of minimal engagement. Late 2026 developments such as verified nuclear compliance steps, sanctions relief tied to verified de-escalation, or direct high-level talks could still shift probabilities, though such catalysts remain absent from current timelines.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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