**Recent polling for Brazil’s October 4, 2026 presidential election shows incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) leading first-round voting intentions at 39–44 percent, followed by Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) at 36–42 percent.** This consistent ordering, with a clear gap to third-place candidates such as Augusto Cury (Avante) around 6 percent, Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) near 4 percent, and Renan Santos (Missão) near 3 percent, underpins the market’s heavy weighting toward Flávio as second place. Lula’s re-election bid and the right-wing consolidation around the Bolsonaro name have kept the contest polarized, while the fragmented remainder of the field has shown limited movement in September surveys. Runoff simulations remain statistically tight, but first-round dynamics have held steady, reinforcing trader consensus on the likely finishing order ahead of the vote.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ 70%
ルイス・イナシオ・ルラ・ダ・シルヴァ 30.3%
レナン・サントス <1%
アウグスト・クーリー <1%
$7,672,237 Vol.
$7,672,237 Vol.
2026/10/03
フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ
70%
ルイス・イナシオ・ルラ・ダ・シルヴァ
30%
レナン・サントス
<1%
アウグスト・クーリー
<1%
タルシジオ・デ・フレイタス
<1%
ジャイール・ボルソナロ
<1%
フェルナンド・ハダジ
<1%
ミシェル・ボルソナロ
<1%
エドゥアルド・ボルソナロ
<1%
ハチーニョ・ジュニオール
<1%
ロナルド・カイアド
<1%
ロメウ・ゼマ
<1%
カミロ・サンタナ
<1%
ジェラウド・アルキミン
<1%
アルド・ヘベロ
<1%
エドゥアルド・レイチ
<1%
テレーザ・クリスティナ
<1%
エルデル・バルバリョ
<1%
フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ 70%
ルイス・イナシオ・ルラ・ダ・シルヴァ 30.3%
レナン・サントス <1%
アウグスト・クーリー <1%
$7,672,237 Vol.
$7,672,237 Vol.
2026/10/03
フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ
$1,033,941 Vol.
70%
ルイス・イナシオ・ルラ・ダ・シルヴァ
$861,218 Vol.
30%
レナン・サントス
$1,357,864 Vol.
<1%
アウグスト・クーリー
$261,522 Vol.
<1%
タルシジオ・デ・フレイタス
$274,561 Vol.
<1%
ジャイール・ボルソナロ
$205,331 Vol.
<1%
フェルナンド・ハダジ
$810,518 Vol.
<1%
ミシェル・ボルソナロ
$229,030 Vol.
<1%
エドゥアルド・ボルソナロ
$173,947 Vol.
<1%
ハチーニョ・ジュニオール
$750,182 Vol.
<1%
ロナルド・カイアド
$507,972 Vol.
<1%
ロメウ・ゼマ
$421,735 Vol.
<1%
カミロ・サンタナ
$207,849 Vol.
<1%
ジェラウド・アルキミン
$231,008 Vol.
<1%
アルド・ヘベロ
$144,665 Vol.
<1%
エドゥアルド・レイチ
$142,390 Vol.
<1%
テレーザ・クリスティナ
$36,533 Vol.
<1%
エルデル・バルバリョ
$21,972 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).**Recent polling for Brazil’s October 4, 2026 presidential election shows incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) leading first-round voting intentions at 39–44 percent, followed by Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) at 36–42 percent.** This consistent ordering, with a clear gap to third-place candidates such as Augusto Cury (Avante) around 6 percent, Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) near 4 percent, and Renan Santos (Missão) near 3 percent, underpins the market’s heavy weighting toward Flávio as second place. Lula’s re-election bid and the right-wing consolidation around the Bolsonaro name have kept the contest polarized, while the fragmented remainder of the field has shown limited movement in September surveys. Runoff simulations remain statistically tight, but first-round dynamics have held steady, reinforcing trader consensus on the likely finishing order ahead of the vote.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
マーケット開始日： Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
音量
$7,672,237終了日
2026/10/04マーケット開始日
Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).**Recent polling for Brazil’s October 4, 2026 presidential election shows incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) leading first-round voting intentions at 39–44 percent, followed by Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) at 36–42 percent.** This consistent ordering, with a clear gap to third-place candidates such as Augusto Cury (Avante) around 6 percent, Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) near 4 percent, and Renan Santos (Missão) near 3 percent, underpins the market’s heavy weighting toward Flávio as second place. Lula’s re-election bid and the right-wing consolidation around the Bolsonaro name have kept the contest polarized, while the fragmented remainder of the field has shown limited movement in September surveys. Runoff simulations remain statistically tight, but first-round dynamics have held steady, reinforcing trader consensus on the likely finishing order ahead of the vote.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
音量
$7,672,237終了日
2026/10/04マーケット開始日
Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...**Recent polling for Brazil’s October 4, 2026 presidential election shows incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) leading first-round voting intentions at 39–44 percent, followed by Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) at 36–42 percent.** This consistent ordering, with a clear gap to third-place candidates such as Augusto Cury (Avante) around 6 percent, Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) near 4 percent, and Renan Santos (Missão) near 3 percent, underpins the market’s heavy weighting toward Flávio as second place. Lula’s re-election bid and the right-wing consolidation around the Bolsonaro name have kept the contest polarized, while the fragmented remainder of the field has shown limited movement in September surveys. Runoff simulations remain statistically tight, but first-round dynamics have held steady, reinforcing trader consensus on the likely finishing order ahead of the vote.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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