Incumbent Democrat Dave Min's strong performance in California's June 2026 top-two primary, where he secured over 45 percent against a divided field, has reinforced trader expectations for a general election victory on November 3. The district's consistent Democratic lean, reflected in voter registration and recent election results, combined with Min's established fundraising and name recognition, underpins the 93.5 percent implied probability for the Democratic nominee. A Republican victory would require an unusually large national midterm shift or late-cycle disruption, such as a major scandal or health event affecting the incumbent, though historical patterns in similar safe seats suggest limited scope for such reversals before Election Day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$12,737 Vol.
$12,737 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
94%
共和党
6%
$12,737 Vol.
$12,737 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$1,861 Vol.
94%
共和党
$10,876 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-47 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Dave Min's strong performance in California's June 2026 top-two primary, where he secured over 45 percent against a divided field, has reinforced trader expectations for a general election victory on November 3. The district's consistent Democratic lean, reflected in voter registration and recent election results, combined with Min's established fundraising and name recognition, underpins the 93.5 percent implied probability for the Democratic nominee. A Republican victory would require an unusually large national midterm shift or late-cycle disruption, such as a major scandal or health event affecting the incumbent, though historical patterns in similar safe seats suggest limited scope for such reversals before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-47 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
音量
$12,737終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-47 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Dave Min's strong performance in California's June 2026 top-two primary, where he secured over 45 percent against a divided field, has reinforced trader expectations for a general election victory on November 3. The district's consistent Democratic lean, reflected in voter registration and recent election results, combined with Min's established fundraising and name recognition, underpins the 93.5 percent implied probability for the Democratic nominee. A Republican victory would require an unusually large national midterm shift or late-cycle disruption, such as a major scandal or health event affecting the incumbent, though historical patterns in similar safe seats suggest limited scope for such reversals before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-47 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$12,737終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Dave Min's strong performance in California's June 2026 top-two primary, where he secured over 45 percent against a divided field, has reinforced trader expectations for a general election victory on November 3. The district's consistent Democratic lean, reflected in voter registration and recent election results, combined with Min's established fundraising and name recognition, underpins the 93.5 percent implied probability for the Democratic nominee. A Republican victory would require an unusually large national midterm shift or late-cycle disruption, such as a major scandal or health event affecting the incumbent, though historical patterns in similar safe seats suggest limited scope for such reversals before Election Day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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