The dominant 90.3% market-implied probability on no IPO by June 30, 2026 stems from the complete absence of an S-1 filing and consistent analyst assessments that Databricks remains focused on private growth in its data and AI infrastructure platform. Recent $134 billion valuation funding rounds, including a $4 billion round closed in late 2025, have provided ample capital without the need for public market access, while CEO statements emphasize readiness without committing to near-term timing. Typical IPO processes require six to twelve months after a confidential filing, placing any realistic debut window in the second half of 2026 or early 2027. A sudden acceleration to meet the June deadline would require unprecedented regulatory speed and market conditions, scenarios traders view as highly improbable given current operational signals.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日2026年6月30日までにIPOなし 89.8%
2,000億〜2,500億ドル 2.1%
1,250～1,500億ドル 1.2%
2,500億ドル以上 <1%
$404,057 Vol.
$404,057 Vol.
2026/06/30
1000億ドル未満
<1%
1000億〜1250億ドル
<1%
1,250～1,500億ドル
1%
1,500～1,750億ドル
<1%
1,750億～2,000億ドル
<1%
2,000億〜2,500億ドル
2%
2,500億ドル以上
1%
2026年6月30日までにIPOなし
90%
2026年6月30日までにIPOなし 89.8%
2,000億〜2,500億ドル 2.1%
1,250～1,500億ドル 1.2%
2,500億ドル以上 <1%
$404,057 Vol.
$404,057 Vol.
2026/06/30
1000億ドル未満
$33,251 Vol.
<1%
1000億〜1250億ドル
$62,203 Vol.
<1%
1,250～1,500億ドル
$26,692 Vol.
1%
1,500～1,750億ドル
$59,911 Vol.
<1%
1,750億～2,000億ドル
$58,164 Vol.
<1%
2,000億〜2,500億ドル
$21,126 Vol.
2%
2,500億ドル以上
$126,227 Vol.
1%
2026年6月30日までにIPOなし
$16,483 Vol.
90%
This market will resolve based on Databricks' market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Databricks’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.The dominant 90.3% market-implied probability on no IPO by June 30, 2026 stems from the complete absence of an S-1 filing and consistent analyst assessments that Databricks remains focused on private growth in its data and AI infrastructure platform. Recent $134 billion valuation funding rounds, including a $4 billion round closed in late 2025, have provided ample capital without the need for public market access, while CEO statements emphasize readiness without committing to near-term timing. Typical IPO processes require six to twelve months after a confidential filing, placing any realistic debut window in the second half of 2026 or early 2027. A sudden acceleration to meet the June deadline would require unprecedented regulatory speed and market conditions, scenarios traders view as highly improbable given current operational signals.
This market will resolve based on Databricks' market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Databricks’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Databricks’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
マーケット開始日： Sep 22, 2025, 8:15 PM ET
音量
$404,057終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Sep 22, 2025, 8:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on Databricks' market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Databricks’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.The dominant 90.3% market-implied probability on no IPO by June 30, 2026 stems from the complete absence of an S-1 filing and consistent analyst assessments that Databricks remains focused on private growth in its data and AI infrastructure platform. Recent $134 billion valuation funding rounds, including a $4 billion round closed in late 2025, have provided ample capital without the need for public market access, while CEO statements emphasize readiness without committing to near-term timing. Typical IPO processes require six to twelve months after a confidential filing, placing any realistic debut window in the second half of 2026 or early 2027. A sudden acceleration to meet the June deadline would require unprecedented regulatory speed and market conditions, scenarios traders view as highly improbable given current operational signals.
This market will resolve based on Databricks' market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Databricks’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Databricks’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
音量
$404,057終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Sep 22, 2025, 8:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The dominant 90.3% market-implied probability on no IPO by June 30, 2026 stems from the complete absence of an S-1 filing and consistent analyst assessments that Databricks remains focused on private growth in its data and AI infrastructure platform. Recent $134 billion valuation funding rounds, including a $4 billion round closed in late 2025, have provided ample capital without the need for public market access, while CEO statements emphasize readiness without committing to near-term timing. Typical IPO processes require six to twelve months after a confidential filing, placing any realistic debut window in the second half of 2026 or early 2027. A sudden acceleration to meet the June deadline would require unprecedented regulatory speed and market conditions, scenarios traders view as highly improbable given current operational signals.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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